Preparations for the BRICS Summit demonstrate Russia’s vulnerable position and limited powers of the Russian President following the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg planned for August 22-24, 2023, the South African presidency said. The presidency announced that instead of Putin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit the event in person.
Earlier, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has declared that any effort to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin while attending the BRICS would amount to “a declaration of war” with Russia.
Putin’s arrest warrant was issued by the ICC at The Hague, for alleged war crimes committed by Russia during its invasion in Ukraine, which have been raging since February 24, 2022.
Upon reaching an agreement with Putin about avoiding the August summit, Ramaphosa had to consult with the other BRICS nations.
At first, Ramaphosa spoke to Brazilian President Lula da Silva about the matter on the sidelines of the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, held on June, 22-23. However, the President wanted his affidavit to be kept confidential until his consultations with the Chinese and Indian leaders.
The President of Brazil agreed that the preferred option, being that President Putin would not attend the summit in person.
Thus, the ICC warrant limited Putin’s movement. His refusal to attend the summit shows unconfidence of the Kremlin’s head in his personal security, that blows seriously the image of Vladimir Putin, who having a status as a war criminal avoids detention and arrest. In this regard, the deterioration of the security situation in South Africa (acts of terrorism, unrest) would give Putin the opportunity to save his image and shift the summit agenda from international criminal prosecution. It requires the attention of South African security agencies.
Due to the deteriorating health state that we have been watching since 2020, Putin has used his body double almost at all federal meetings.
The frequency of the body double’s presence at official events gives us the reason to suggest that such a training can make him capable to replace Putin in case of emergency in order to keep control over the situation in Russia. However, as for international visits the Kremlin still refrains from using an body double. Obviously, this body double trend caught the South African President’s eye. Otherwise, it is impossible to explain his statement that participation of the ‘people showing themselves as the first persons’ is unacceptable. Moscow unlikely consulted with Johannesburg about sending a body double. There are also doubts that the South African warning referred to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov.
Read also: Situation in Russia
Thus, Russia was given a signal as for risks of using Putin’s body double in foreign events, since his arrest could trigger high turbulence for the Kremlin and the matter of the power legitimacy in Russia.Doubtfully, except Belarus and Tajikistan, Vladimir Putin will pay any official visits abroad. Thus, diplomatically Russia can be presented either by group of individuals from Putin’s entourage at the highest level, or heads of government or foreign policy departments at the lowest one. Sergey Lavrov cannot replace the President to manage the diplomatic work, since his position does not allow him to attend the meetings and negotiations of the presidential level. Neither can Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin perform these diplomatic tasks. Possibly, the Kremlin will choose an emissary from the President’s entourage for holding international talks, but there are doubts that such a person will be internationally perceived respectively in the context of Russia’s growing toxicity. Ultimately, it will reduce Russia’s role in international processes.
