More mercenaries to contract: how the Kremlin tries to handle heavy losses in Ukraine

In order to make up for major losses it is suffering in Ukraine Russia is doing its best to increase the number of mercenaries from among citizens of “friendly countries”. Following the disclosure of the Cuban citizens’ recruitment mechanism, it turned out that Moscow was involved in recruiting Serbian nationals to fight in the war against Ukraine.

The foreigners’ recruitment process is run by the FSB. It also confirms RLI conclusions that the Department of Counterintelligence Operations of the FSB, which reports to the head of counterintelligence Vladislav Menshikov, is also involved in recruiting Cubans from the territory of the Russian Federation.

We estimate that the foreigners’ involvement in the war against Ukraine was tasked by high-rank officials of the Russian Security Council, which is seriously concerned about public reaction to the mobilization measures inside the country and major losses in the Russian army in the context of the upcoming power transfer. The Kremlin is convinced that battle casualties among foreign citizens pose no risks to the nation, while losses of Russian citizens are classified.

According to the Intelligence online, the scheme to recruit foreign volunteers and enlist them through the military commissariat of Krasnogorsk, Moscow Region, was invented by Roman Karataev, a graduate of the FSB academy, vice-chairman of the Government of the Moscow Region and head of the Main Department of Regional Security of the Moscow Region. He joined the government of the Moscow Region in 2014 after working for the FSB. However, we are convinced that in fact the scheme was developed by the Security Council specialists and was sent to the Moscow Region divisions for implementation.  This strategic transfer can be reasoned by the fact that the region has allegedly failed to fulfil the requirements of the “clandestine” mobilisation effort. The leadership of the Kremlin security bloc has no sympathy with the governor of the Moscow Region that is proved by the tasks he is assigned to. According to our estimates, the Kremlin intends to form a full-fledged Serbian brigade.

The Kremlin has been using Serbs to fight in Ukraine since 2014. Pictures of Serbian mercenaries published in social media prove this fact.

A significant part of them was the Wagner PMC members. In particular, the platoon commanded by Davor Savicic, who was awarded 4 Orders of Courage. He also commanded a unit as part of the 106th Tula Division of the Russian Airborne Forces, which fought near Gostomel and in the Borodyanka region; and was a subordinate to Major General Vladimir Seliverstov. Thus, Serbian mercenaries could have committed war crimes in these territories.

The recruitment of Serbs was participated by Alexander Zaldostanov (“the Surgeon”), the leader of the ‘Night Wolves’ motorcycle club, who has close ties with far-right circles in Serbia and Slovakia affiliated with the FSB and Russian military intelligence. An analysis of the mercenaries’ social media accounts shows their direct connection with Igor Girkin, who served as the Minister of Defense of the self-proclaimed DPR and was the FSB-associate during the destabilization of the situation in Donbass in 2014. 

Marko Milosevic, the son of the ex-president and war criminal of Yugoslavia, who lives in the Russian Federation, also participated in the recruitment process.

Thus, in fact Moscow has not changed the Serbs’ recruitment system since 2014 and continues to practice it.Milosevic is assisted by lawyer Cedomir Stojkovic, who by using an NGO recruits Serbs in the Russian Army.

As Savicic says, Serbian volunteers were granted Russian citizenship; this statement is proved by the information about providing contract Cuban mercenaries with Russian citizenship. There is a possibility that the Russian citizenship may serve as an element to protect the recruits and save them from criminal prosecution. In Serbia, mercenarism is considered as a crime that means that the Serbs recruited into the Russian Army could be imprisoned up to 10 years at home.

In August 2023, Russia was reported to have recruited 500 Serbian mercenaries to fight in Ukraine. It took them 3 months to achieve this result. We are convinced that Vulin, the head of Serbian intelligence, participated on this process.

It cannot be ruled out that Serbian mission in the war against Ukraine is to gain combat experience and perhaps use it in the future operations in Kosovo.We estimate that Moscow will expand the recruitment of foreigners to fight on the Russian Army side in the war in Ukraine. With no doubts Russia will search for contract fighters in Latin America and Asia.