Moscow and Tehran most likely took a direct part in organizing, approving, and politically supporting the Hamas operation against Israel.
On October 7, the day Vladimir Putin’s celebrates his birthday, Hamas terrorists kicked off what they call Operation Al-Aqsa Storm against Israel. Within just 30 minutes, they launched some 5,000 rockets and projectiles from the Gaza Strip. The militants penetrated the Israeli territory by land, sea, and air, taking civilians hostage and waging urban battles in densely populated areas.
In May 2021, an RLI report noted that the Russian Foreign Ministry was coordinating the activities of anti-Israel Palestinian terrorist groups, providing their leaders with a safe platform for meetings in Moscow. From 2015 to 2020, top leaders of MFA Russia and Hamas held seven formal meetings. By meddling in Palestine’s internal political affairs, Russia is counting on strengthening its influence in the region and across the Arab world.
Moscow benefits from the escalation in the Middle East as it could allow for launching talks with the United States. Thus, Putin raises the stakes and regains geopolitical negotiating weight, shifting international attention away from his war on Ukraine. It is highly likely that the Kremlin provided intelligence support to the Palestinians for the attack on Israel, as well as weapons delivered via Syria and Lebanon. The type of hang gliders used by the Palestinians to fly over the wall with Israel is quite similar to the Poisk-06 MSN model, which has been in service with the Russian Guard since 2015.
According to verified reports, the Russians are recruiting Palestinians in Lebanon for their war against Ukraine, offering an allowance of around $350. To this end, members of pro-Iranian Hezbollah and the 25th Syrian Special Operations Division led by Major General Suhail Al-Hasan provide comprehensive recruiting support.
We are convinced that the assault on Israel was practically a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is now in a position to show off his outreach potential after the failure of his military intelligence in Ukraine.
We are convinced that the ongoing raid on the territory of Israel was launched by Palestinian units of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the PLO following due coordination with Moscow. The Kremlin is interested in opening a sort of a second front. Previously, Moscow intended to make a conflict between Serbia and Kosovo divert NATO resources in Europe.
The conflict in Israel is expected to degrade military stocks in the US, with which Israel has a defense deal.
The Kremlin seeks to weaken the United States.
Normally, Russia’s active malign operations receive media support through propaganda channels mainly targeting domestic audiences, which allows for a better understanding of the actual objectives of such operations.
After the attack on Israel, Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev outlined what he believes are the main positive aspects of the Palestinian assault:
1. Israel will compete with Ukraine for military aid on the international stage, which will lead to a weakening of support for Kyiv.
2. It distracts international public focus from the war in Ukraine.
3. It will allow to cut the supply of air defense capabilities to Ukraine on the eve of massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the winter period involving Iranian-made kamikaze drones.
4. Russian war crimes in Ukraine pale against the background of the atrocities the Palestinians are committing on Israeli soil.
5. A number of Russian propagandists, affiliated with military intelligence, who have long been spreading fake news of Ukraine trading in foreign military aid, are now spinning narratives alleging Kyiv’s supplies of weapons, donated by foreign partners, to Palestinian militants. According to our estimates, Russia, through its warm relations with Hezbollah, will send to the Gaza Strip a few units of weaponry captured on Ukraine’s battlefields – as evidence to back their claims.
Since the Cold War, Moscow has viewed Israel as a hostile nation allied with the US Since then, the Kremlin has sought to maintain relations with Palestinian radical groups, orchestrating their attacks in a way that would best undermine US interests in the hybrid warfare format.
P1CIA-RDP82-00457R001800590009-3 P2CIA-RDP82-00457R000300070003-2 P4CIA-RDP65-00756R000500130006-7At the same time, the Kremlin is preparing the leadership of Iran and Egypt for joining the war against Israel should Jerusalem advance deep into the Gaza Strip.Through their military intelligence capabilities, Kremlin officials seek to hamper any normalization between Israel and the Arab world, especially with Riyadh, including by helping Iranians exploit the Palestinian issue.
