Lavrov’s participation in OSCE Ministerial part of Russia’s disinformation, propaganda campaign

Russia is plotting a massive propaganda and disinformation stunt at the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Skopje, North Macedonia. The presence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the event, also set to be attended by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, will give the Kremlin several important gains, the Kremlin believes.

1. It will demonstrate that despite the condemnation by Western democracies of Russia’s foreign policy in connection with the war of aggression against Ukraine, Moscow remains the focus of Western interest and continues to take part in shaping security policy in Europe.

2. Blinken’s participation will allow the Kremlin to argue that the United States needs dialogue with Russia and is forced to sit at the same table with Russian government officials.

3. We are convinced that during the event, Lavrov will once again impose on the audiences the thesis that the war in Ukraine is the result of the flawed policy on the part of the West and NATO expansion.

For Moscow, this is an important thesis that they seek to voice in the capital of North Macedonia, the state that was the last to join NATO in 2020. Thus, Lavrov’s participation in the meeting will allow the Russians to claim that the Alliance is unable to stand strong against the Kremlin, and that the latter can participate in foreign policy processes on NATO soil unhindered.

The preparations for Lavrov’s visit to the OSCE Council of Ministers session are being led by the Head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, who has taken over some of the presidential powers since August 2023. This indicates that Moscow has no intentions to take any constructive position until the next year’s presidential elections in the U.S. and Russia. Thus, it’s only Russia that will benefit from the OSCE ministerial meeting if its foreign minister takes part.

Nikolai Patrushev has long been a staunch supporter of various conspiracy theories. In this regard, in Skopje, the Russian side intends to voice a number of accusations targeting Washington and Brussels, as well as circulate yet another portion of disinformation regarding their war in Ukraine. Thus, Lavrov’s participation in the meeting discredits the OSCE, turning it into a cozy platform for Russia’s active influence operations.

Despite the Kremlin’s destructive role in the Balkans and Russia’s intensified activity in destabilizing the situation in BiH and Kosovo, it is unlikely that Skopje, over whose government Russia has influence, will deny Lavrov entry into the country, as Poland proudly did in November 2022. Although it is precisely this scenario that would allow North Macedonia to demonstrate its integrity and commitment to the unity of the Alliance. In fact, not allowing Lavrov to attend the meeting could become a solution more effective than simply boycotting the event as it would also ensure the attendance of delegations from countries that found themselves in the most vulnerable zone of the European security system without the risk of Russia exploiting the event for propaganda and disinformation purposes.