Venezuela may soon invade the small South American country Guayana to annex its region Esequibas, which makes up more than 60% of the country’s territory and is claimed by the Venezuelan government. If this scenario succeeds, it could trigger a major regional conflict involving not only Guyana and Venezuela, but also Brazil and other neighboring countries, as well as the US and other international actors.
The crisis in Guyana, which we reported on in March 2020, has escalated into an armed confrontation between Venezuela and the South American country.
More on this story: Annexation and ethnic confrontation: menaces for Guyana after the election
The crisis regulation is quite complicated by the conflict of interests between the American oil producers Exxon Mobil and Hess Corp, and the Chinese CNOOC Corporation as for oil fields in the disputed territory of Esequiba, the production capacity of which is estimated at 1.64 million bpd by 2030.
In this context Brazil decided to strengthen its military presence in the northern region of the country amid rising tensions between Venezuela and Guayana over an oil-rich region known as the “Esequiba,” which constitutes over two thirds of Guyana’s total land mass. The disputes between the two counties over Essequibo, a reason of long-term territorial tensions, have renewed following Guyana’s discovery of oil and gas reserves near the maritime border.
On December 3, Venezuela schedules a so-called referendum claiming its ‘rights’ to Essequibo. In this regard, we believe the conflict between countries will have reached its maximum. until December 7.
The citizens of Venezuela will be given five questions, one of them is ‘whether you agree to oppose, by all means, in accordance with the law, the Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law’ and ‘whether they support granting Venezuelan nationality to the 125,000 inhabitants of the Guayana Esequiba.
Venezuela inherited Spain’s claim to the region after its independence in 1811, but Britain extended control further west of the Essequibo River in the 19th century. The US intervened and forced Britain to accept international arbitration for the entire disputed area. An arbitration tribunal, convened in Paris in 1898, awarded most of the territory to British Guiana.
The question will be on the ballot in a five-part referendum that, among other things, would grant Maduro special powers to invade Guyana and create a new Venezuelan state encompassing 74% of English-speaking Guyana’s current landmass.
Many Guyanese see the threat as real and are afraid of losing their citizenship.
Venezuela has protested Guyana’s oil tender in the disputed area, saying the fields are “subject to dispute” and companies that have rights to develop them will be deprived of that right.
The controversy stems from colonial times and was deepened after Guyana gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. Although Venezuela has unceasingly contested an 1899 ruling made by international arbitrators that established the current borders between the two countries, it had allowed the issue to remain on the back burner for decades.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has fueled it since 2015, when vast oil deposits were discovered. Guyana already has an operational deployment in the disputed site and that the public support of the countries of the Commonwealth, the Caribbean Community (Caricom), and other external partners should alert Venezuela.
The border dispute is currently at the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. Guyana has asked the court to rule the 1899 decision valid and binding. Guyana’s government wants the international court to look at the questions on the referendum as well as the comments made by Maduro’s regime, including its National Electorate Council.
Venezuela’s claim to the region, backed by historical, legal, and geopolitical reasons, has received President Nicolás Maduro’s endorsement.
Maduro’s efforts to fan the flames of nationalism are an attempt to boost his faltering popularity that could easily get out of hand and create a situation where he is forced to use the powers he is invoking. Maduro has domestic constituencies in mind, but we think that annexation means greater isolation for him and more international problems than the ones he already has. However Putin’s case leaves a chance for Maduro to try. The possibility for a forced annexation poses risk not only for the Guyanese but also for the country’s neighbors, some of whom base their own borders on the same 1899 arbitration decision.
The regime has already launched an aggressive propaganda media campaign over the news outlets it controls. Every few minutes TV and radio stations broadcast jingles promoting one constant message: “The Essequibo is ours.” While there is widespread mistrust about the Caracas regime’s ability to hold fair elections in Venezuela, an overwhelming yes vote is expected, given that even Maduro’s opponents have either refrained from criticizing the referendum or have actually supported it.
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said that the dispute with Guyana “is not an armed war, for now. Go out and vote.” He also noted that the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) would remain “permanently vigilant.”
Guyana remains committed to safeguarding its territorial integrity, while Venezuela has expressed its desire to “recover” the region. Despite the escalating conflict we believe that open conflict between the two countries is not imminent.
We still estimate that roil in Guyana meets the Kremlin’s interests as for the rise of Nicolas Maduro’s regime. If Guyana is roiled, Venezuelan proxies, backed by the Cuban units, are likely to intervene, allowing Caracas to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute.
A potential operation in Guyana will allow Maduro to boost his polling numbers in the country and gather the ruling party’s backing.
Prior we assumed that Russia could deploy a military presence in this region, in close proximity to the US borders and it could suggest such solution to the territorial dispute, based on Crimea’s annexation case. However, at the moment, such a scenario is unlikely due to the Kremlin’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, which has significantly limited Moscow’s resources and capabilities in foreign operations.Brazil cannot afford to allow annexation to happen, especially the forced aspect. The country has maintained cordial and cooperative relations with Guyana and Venezuela and has supported peaceful and diplomatic solutions to the dispute over Guyana Esquibon. However, Brazil’s stance has changed significantly under the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, who has a more confrontational and ideological stance against Venezuela and its allies. Bolsonaro also expressed support for Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and criticized Venezuela’s claims and actions as aggressive and illegal.
