As leaders of U.S. Democrats and Republicans confront each other in electoral race, there is a danger of making wrong foreign policy decisions, likely to cause U.S. military casualties, while current American support for allies in Ukraine and Israel is not more than arms and munitions supply.
Based on the analysis of the situation, it is evident that after the 2024 election Russia will keep on confronting the United States and the West, as a major aspect of its foreign policy and a key basis for its existence.
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That means the Kremlin will inevitably go further in expanding territories, once the objective in Ukraine is attained. It will affect NATO member states, which Moscow signs into its circle of influence. That would entail the danger of armed conflicts between Russia and NATO forces, with American soldiers involved, as a result.
Earlier foreign policy choices by GOP administrations threw the U.S. into long-term and multiple-loss military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. Errors in estimation and planning led to wrong decision-making. Error probability rises today, as decision-making is highly politicized.
The support for Ukraine by the Biden administration has made U.S.-Russia conventional conflict less likely. The aid worth 5% of the U.S. defense budget reduced Russia’s combat potential by 60%. At the same time, we got opportunity to try out arms in a high-intensity war involving electronic warfare, hypersonic weapon, UAVs and aircraft, which was not the case in any of the conflicts U.S. forces took part in. The United States, therefore, gained skills and experience in the war with Russia, with no American soldiers participating in the war.
The impact by military aid on American defense industry and inventories was also a significant factor.
Ukraine’s experience in the war against Russia made it possible to assess arms and ammunition needs for modern warfare, and prioritize munitions and equipment necessary for effective combat. This made it possible, on the one hand, to minimize excessive outdated inventory in warehouses and update it by ordering new samples from domestic manufacturers.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is starting to boost defense contractors’ revenues, as customers such as the U.S. government restock supplies shipped to Ukraine, and countries around Europe arm themselves with an eye on Moscow’s aggressions.
U.S. defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), General Dynamics (GD.N) and others expect that existing orders for hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, hundreds of Patriot missile interceptors and a surge in orders for armored vehicles expected in the months ahead will underpin their results in coming quarters.
Lockheed, General Dynamics and RTX (RTX.N) all reported better than expected results over the past several days, and executives expect both the conflict in Ukraine and Israel’s war with Palestinian militant group Hamas to drive up near-term demand.
During his latest request for $106 billion in new funds for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific region and border enforcement, U.S. President Joe Biden on Oct. 20 said some of the supplemental request would go to companies that backfill production of U.S. weapons sent abroad. Biden mentioned Patriot missiles made in Arizona, and “artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country,” naming Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. U.S. military aid, therefore, supports jobs and funding for American contractors, located mainly in Republican states. That means funding is not withdrawn from the U.S., but flows to local companies.
Military aid for Israel will further diminish the capacity of Iranian proxies in the region and their ability to attack U.S. targets. With Russia defeated and its military power run down, we might avoid a dramatic scenario with Chinese invasion of Taiwan and prevent possible American losses in a conflict with China.As Republicans criticize Democrats for military aid to Ukraine, it is worth recalling that the Trump administration was the one to supply lethal arms to Ukraine for the first time since 2014. Current rhetoric by the Republicans reveals, therefore, inconsistent foreign policy and repeating mistakes in foreign policy decision-making that previously involved the United States in military conflicts, with losses of American soldiers. Escalation of conflicts in the world is inevitable. Venezuela and Guyana cases prove these conflicts will involve U.S. enemies who will try to exploit the situation to weaken Washington and its allies. Unfortunately, we must recognize that the initiatives declared by the Republicans might have extremely negative effect on U.S. foreign policy and cause U.S. Army losses, as it would be forced to take part in military conflicts.
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