Russia planning for armed conflict between Serbia and Kosovo

Russia is set to launch an armed uprising in Serbia, to incite Belgrade into invading Kosovo. With Putin re-elected, the Security Council’s Head Nikolai Patrushev is still in charge of the operation. That’s unusual, as Putin was always personally involved in developing and approval for that kind of action plans.

The Serbian Army has stepped up along the border with Kosovo, which confirms the reports on preparatory work for the operation.  These reports suggest Russia might have brought a military intelligence group to Belgrade, to consult and coordinate with the Serbs. Russia, therefore, operates in concert with President Vučić and ex-Head of Serbia’s Intelligence Vulin. We believe the operation is to start in the Mitrovica region, where Serbian special task force will operate together with local criminal armed groups, controlled by Serbian and Russian criminal gangs. Some parts of the operation have already been worked out in 2021-2023, during previous attacks in Mitrovica.

The Kremlin is keen on generating an armed conflict in Europe ahead of the elections to the European Parliament and the U.S. presidential campaign. Under this scenario, Russia will mediate negotiations with Vučić in exchange for ultimatums on the Ukrainian issue. We expect the Kremlin to launch an information campaign, as it has already threatened to start WW III, to draw analogy between the new conflict in the Balkans and the outbreak of WW I.

The provocation primarily aims to generate a conflict that NATO would not be able to handle properly. The operation in Kosovo, meanwhile, is part of preparing for a conflict in the Baltics, in Latvia, we believe. Mitrovica is a testing ground for a similar scenario in Latgale (Latvia), developed by Moscow in 2014.

Moscow sees the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine as an opportunity to dismantle NATO, should a controlled confrontation arise. The EU effort to provide military aid to Ukraine has exposed a systematic lack of weapons and production capacity, likely to result in a crisis, should another conflict break out in Europe.

Russia has already set the stage for NATO decision-making crisis, as it launched a psyop, distorting Emmanuel Macron’s words on possible sending of national forces to Ukraine. We believe Russia intends to stage a case with maximum KFOR losses. The Kremlin is keen on Kosovo defeat, seeing it as a symbol of nation that has got out of the metropolis hand. That symbol should be removed, which goes in line with Moscow’s aim to restore the empire within its borders. Serbia-Kosovo conflict will bring Belgrade’s EU integration process to a standstill. Moscow will strengthen its hand on Serbia that way, with the Vučić regime becoming fully dependent on the Kremlin. Russia, on the home front, will use the conflict to blame NATO for its start. That narrative is likely to target the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, to make the people believe that Russia invaded them to prevent similar scenario in Ukraine, as Moscow’s propaganda claims. We believe Russia will use Putin’s next presidency to confront NATO and the U.S. That is a major goal for Putin’s entourage, committed to the communist ideology of a constant standoff with the West. These people see Soviet breakup as their own humiliation and frustration, despite further career advancement.