Risk of political unrest high for Moldova

Moldova is possibly facing a coup d’état and unrest, as the Kremlin steps up effort to bring Chisinau back under Russia’s wing.

We’ve seen a similar scenario in Ukraine in 2013, as current escalation in Moldova coincides with an effort by Chisinau to join the EU. Sandu’s pro-EU government that replaced the communist regime of Russia’s puppet Dodon, is the target for the Kremlin, as it seeks to roil Moldova, to heat things up at the Ukrainian border, so that Russia could use Moldova’s territory as a foothold to put pressure on Kyiv from the southwest.

To prepare a coup d’état, Moscow hosted a congress of opposition Moldovan politicians and MPs, where Moldova’s Șor Party leader, banned by Sandu’s regime, and the Governor of Gagauzia Yevgenia Gutsul were present. The meeting campaigned for Moldova’s joining pro-Russian EAEU and maintaining distance from Romania. The organizers held nearly the same rhetoric as that in Ukraine ahead of the Vilnius summit, where Russia managed to persuade ex-President Yanukovych to abandon the European choice, which triggered anti-government protests in Kyiv and then Revolution of Dignity.

The fact that Russia’s military intelligence has currently joined the effort on Moldova is a cause for concern. Dodon’s regime used to be supervised by political intelligence (SVR). Military intelligence dealt mainly with Transnistria. But now we can see military intelligence (Simonyan) actively engaged in developing a political base to overthrow the Sandu government and bring Russian puppets to power. ‘Victory’, a new political bloc, has been set up for this purpose, targeting to win the presidential election in Moldova this fall.Russia will definitely do its utmost to hinder Moldova’s joining the EU. With Russia’s military intelligence involved, Moldova might face some military operations, takeover of the government offices, mass clashes, and rise in separatism in Gagauzia, like Russian scenario in the Donbas in 2014. Sandu would find herself in a fragile position, which endangers the prospects for democracy in the country. We doubt that Russia will make a direct military attack on Moldova. That, most likely, will be an attempt to roil the country from inside, changing the government for a pro-Russian one. We assume, however, Moscow will be able to use the units in Transnistria and Russian special operations forces, moved from Crimea, for indirect military intervention.