While Russia is unlikely to completely abandon Assad in the short term, the scope of its support may diminish as global and regional pressures mount. Moscow’s continued involvement will likely be driven by strategic interests in maintaining its foothold in Syria, but the scale and intensity of its commitment will depend on its capacity to balance competing priorities, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Syrian Rebels Liberate Key City of Hama, Opening Pathway to Damascus
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United rebel forces in Syria have seized the strategically vital city of Hama, paving the way toward Homs—the gateway to Damascus. The Assad regime has confirmed its withdrawal from the city.
Homs, located just 40 kilometers south of Hama along the M5 highway, stands between rebel forces and the Syrian capital. The only obstacles remaining are the towns of Rastan and Tell-Bisa. Rastan’s geography offers defensive advantages, with its flanks shielded by the Orontes River and a nearby reservoir. However, the Assad army’s failure to protect Hama’s flanks raises doubts about its ability to hold Rastan.
Reports from Tell-Bisa suggest that local residents have already pledged allegiance to the rebels, signaling support for an internal uprising to wrest control of the town.
Should the rebels capture Homs, they would gain a direct route to Damascus and Syria’s coastal regions, threatening critical Russian bases in the area. Satellite imagery of the Tartus naval port reveals the absence of Russian military vessels, which were previously stationed there. Images from December 1 showed three warships—the frigates Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Gorshkov, along with the corvette Merkury. By December 5, these ships, along with the support vessel Yelnya, had departed.
The Russian fleet’s evacuation from Tartus underscores concerns for its safety and highlights Moscow’s waning capacity to maintain a military foothold abroad amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This development could severely undermine Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East.
The rebels’ successes and Russia’s perceived retreat are troubling signs for Assad. Analysts speculate that the Kremlin may have deprioritized its Syrian ally, finding itself unable to sustain dual military campaigns in Syria and Ukraine. Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine is likely to result in the gradual reduction of its military presence in other global theaters.
In the Middle East, Moscow might shift its influence to favor Iran, potentially providing air cover for Iranian and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, such a strategy would strain Russia’s already limited stockpile of aerial munitions, weakening its campaign in Ukraine. If implemented, this could lead to a resurgence of indiscriminate bombing campaigns in Syria, further endangering civilian lives.
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Meanwhile, reports suggest intense diplomatic communication between Washington and Moscow aimed at coordinating positions on Syria. Unconfirmed sources also claim that Assad has reached out to Israel for assistance.
Tel Aviv might entertain such an offer if Damascus agrees to expel Iranian forces and Hezbollah from its territory—a move that is highly unlikely. Russia’s diminishing ability to guarantee Assad’s security, combined with his reliance on Iran and Hezbollah, suggests that abandoning these alliances could spell the end of his regime.
This rapidly shifting landscape signals a critical juncture in Syria’s conflict, with regional and global repercussions poised to reshape alliances and strategies in the Middle East.
The chances of Syrian rebels capturing Damascus depend on a complex interplay of military, political, and regional factors:
Military Factors
- Geographic and Strategic Obstacles
- Proximity to Damascus: The rebels’ advance from Hama to Homs is a critical step, but the road to Damascus is heavily fortified.
- Military Resources
- Rebel Strength: If the rebels can maintain momentum, consolidate gains, and secure additional reinforcements, they could pose a credible threat to Damascus.
- Assad’s Troop Morale: The regime’s forces have shown vulnerabilities, particularly if overstretched or poorly coordinated.
- External Support
- Rebels supported by foreign allies, including logistical aid or weaponry, could gain an edge, especially if Assad’s backers (notably Russia) continue to scale back their involvement.
Political Factors
- Unity Among Rebels
- Fragmentation within rebel factions has historically weakened their offensives. A unified command structure and shared vision could boost their chances.
- Local Support
- Popular discontent in and around Damascus could provide critical support to rebels, either by aiding logistics or undermining Assad’s control.
- International Dynamics
- Russia’s Retreat: A reduction in Russian support could cripple Assad’s capacity to defend the capital.
- Iranian and Hezbollah Influence: Iran and Hezbollah might step in to fill the gap left by Russia, bolstering regime defenses.
Regional and Global Dynamics
- U.S. and Israeli Roles
- Washington’s diplomatic stance and potential military assistance to anti-Assad forces could play a role.
- Israel may intervene to limit Iran and Hezbollah’s influence near Damascus, indirectly aiding rebel efforts.
- Turkish Influence
- Turkey, a key supporter of certain rebel factions, could escalate involvement, particularly if it aligns with its regional security goals.
While the rebels’ momentum is promising, capturing Damascus would require overcoming entrenched defenses, securing sustained external support, and navigating complex political dynamics. The current trajectory suggests it is a possibility, but a highly challenging one, contingent on the weakening of Assad’s allies and the rebels’ ability to sustain their advance.
