Kremlin’s Strategy: Leveraging Diplomacy to Justify the Next Phase in Ukraine

Kremlin Sources Anticipate Diplomatic Breakthrough with the U.S. 

Russia’s Presidential Administration is brimming with confidence, anticipating a diplomatic victory. This optimism stems from the recent revival of U.S.-Russia dialogue, marked by a phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump on February 12, as well as subsequent contacts between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Senator Marco Rubio, and Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov with Representative Michael Waltz.  

A key moment in this renewed engagement was the high-level U.S.-Russia meeting in Riyadh on February 18, which was particularly beneficial for Moscow.  

Washington has acknowledged and accepted Russia’s arguments regarding the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis—namely, NATO expansion and the protection of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine. 

In response, the Russian Presidential Administration, under Yuriy Ushakov’s leadership, has formulated a set of demands to be presented to international partners as prerequisites for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.  

Key Russian Requirements for Peace Negotiations:

– Security Guarantees: The elimination of threats to Russia’s security stemming from NATO’s continued expansion, which Moscow views as a violation of previous agreements and a direct encroachment on its geopolitical sphere.  

– Policy Reversal in Ukraine: Ending post-2014 policies aimed at suppressing the Russian language, culture, media, traditions, and Orthodox Christianity.  

– Recognition of Russian Territorial Claims: International acknowledgment of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR, LPR), as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.  

– Demilitarization and “Denazification” of Ukraine: Returning to the terms outlined in the Istanbul Agreement.  

– Non-deployment of Foreign Forces: Prohibiting the presence of any foreign military personnel in Ukraine, including under the banners of the UN, EU, OSCE, or other allied coalitions.  

– Conditional Ceasefire: No ceasefire unless firm agreements are in place for a final settlement.  

– Overcoming Legal Barriers: Addressing President Zelenskyy’s “illegitimacy” and his self-imposed ban on negotiations with Russia (effective since September 30, 2022). Russia proposes holding simultaneous presidential, parliamentary, and local elections in Ukraine, with participation from all political parties.  

– Western De-escalation: The U.S. must abandon the notion of achieving “peace through strength” or Russia’s “strategic defeat.” This includes halting arms shipments, intelligence sharing, military training for Ukraine, and rolling back sanctions against Russia.  

The Kremlin emphasizes that Moscow will only agree to a peace deal if all these conditions are met.  

However, Russian officials privately acknowledge that fulfilling these demands in full would likely lead to further destabilization in Ukraine. Instead, the strategy is to publicly present these conditions as a gesture of goodwill—forcing Kyiv into a difficult diplomatic position. The goal is to let Ukraine’s options narrow until it refuses further concessions, allowing Moscow to declare Ukraine’s unwillingness to negotiate and justify launching a new military offensive at a time when Ukrainian forces may be less prepared to repel it—particularly in terms of equipment and supplies.  

The Russian demands are an ultimatum that has nothing to do with diplomacy. They are aimed not at peace but at Ukraine’s capitulation. The only way to neutralize them is by strengthening defense, applying diplomatic pressure, and maintaining international support.