Vucic will not resign He will try painful scenarios

Student protests in Serbia, which began four months ago following the collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad, continue unabated in pursuit of their demands. Students from different regions of Serbia have been walking for days to join the next protest, anticipated to be the largest in Serbian history. Without a formal organizational council but united in their cause, the students have remained steadfast, refusing to back down despite immense pressure from the Vucic regime.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic recently attributed the upcoming March 15 rally to the opposition, warning that an event is being organized for the same date under opposition influence. He has also labeled the protests a “multi-colored revolution” allegedly backed by the West, yet he has offered no tangible solution to the current crisis. The Serbian authorities have predicted violence at this event, although the protests have thus far remained peaceful. The government has attempted to manipulate the movement by giving it nationalist overtones and infiltrating secret service personnel within the protest.

Vucic has further escalated tensions by threatening protesters with arrests and even military intervention. He has gone so far as to declare that Serbia will not have a caretaker government unless he is removed dead by his position—rhetoric he frequently employs during times of crisis. Meanwhile, the European Union has called for de-escalation and the creation of conditions conducive to dialogue, including all relevant parties.

The primary goal of the March 15 mass protest is to end Vucic’s rule, and students hope this will mark a turning point. However, Vucic is reportedly planning violent scenarios to portray the protests as an attempt to forcefully seize institutions or overthrow the government. To achieve this, he has mobilized government officials, war veterans who participated in massacres in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, and Kosovo Serbs. According to sources, he has reminded Kosovo Serbs—who have been receiving salaries from the Serbian state without working—that it is time to repay their benefits by supporting him. Many Kosovo Serbs have long been used as political tools by the Serbian government.

Vucic now finds himself in a precarious position, with protests in Belgrade indicating that a majority of Serbian citizens no longer support him. In response, he has turned to his loyalists, such as retired members of the Red Berets unit, notorious for their crimes during the Yugoslav wars. On Tuesday, individuals in military uniforms and red berets appeared in Belgrade’s Pionirski Park as protesters blocked the entrances to Serbia’s two largest television stations, both controlled by Vucic.

To counter the student movement, this pro-government group called “Students 2.0” has emerged. Serbian television broadcasts have shown this group setting up military-style tents near the presidency. Leading the column of veterans supporting “Students 2.0” is Goran Radosavljević Guri, a retired police colonel who once commanded Serbia’s Special Police Units and later the Gendarmerie, who is seen attacking a university professor with a stick while the latter was peacefully protesting. Guri, now “defending” Vucic from the students, is suspected of involvement in the Reçak massacre and the murder of the Bytyçi brothers during the Kosovo war.

Vucic has enlisted mercenaries, young men without families, and military pensioners dependent on Serbian state benefits to reinforce his ranks. Those who refuse to participate in the “Students 2.0” protest have reportedly been threatened with losing their benefits. Additionally, many former paramilitary soldiers from the Kosovo war, particularly members of Milan Radojčić’s criminal group involved in the Banjska operation, are heading to Belgrade. According to reports, Vucic has personally invited them, either to protect him or to incite violence during the March 15 protest. Media sources suggest that Kosovo Serbs are being offered €200 per night to take part, potentially inciting conflict between them and Serbian protesters in Belgrade. Given his waning trust in state institutions such as the military and police—evidenced by viral videos showing police officers sympathizing with students—Vucic may use the Kosovo Serbs as counters to provoke bloodshed, potentially leading to internal conflict or even civil war in Serbia.

Another strategy Vucic might employ to alleviate domestic pressure is provoking conflicts in neighboring regions, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina or northern Kosovo. His political playbook has often included externalizing crises; for instance, after facing massive protests in Serbia, he orchestrated the Banjska attack and swiftly called for elections. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, he already has a strong ally in Milorad Dodik, who was recently sentenced to one year in prison and banned from public office for six years. Dodik has historically been willing to aid Vucic in diverting Serbian attention toward Republika Srpska. Given the recent developments—such as the adoption of a new Republika Srpska constitution and the prosecutor’s arrest warrant for Dodik—the conditions for conflict appear to be emerging. While Dodik’s arrest is inevitable, the timing and manner remain uncertain.On March 15, over 200,000 protesters are expected to gather in Belgrade—twice as many as those who helped overthrow Slobodan Milošević’s regime 25 years ago. Although Serbia is poised for change, the likelihood of a political shift toward greater European integration remains slim. Vucic, who originally came to power with Western backing, is frequently accused by the opposition of being overly liberal and pro-Western. However, his determination to cling to power at all costs suggests that he will not resign willingly. With no legal mechanisms currently available to remove Vucic, the outcome of this protest remains uncertain. The potential for bloodshed—fueled by Vucic’s tactics—looms large, with his loyalists prepared to incite chaos. Meanwhile, student protesters are expected to escalate their actions, blocking additional institutions as they have already done with universities across Serbia.