The overthrow of Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-backed coalition and interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, marked a major regional shift and a significant blow to Iran.
Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military responses in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran’s regional influence suffered further setbacks. While the Iran-led axis of resistance still holds sway in parts of the region, losing Syria as a strategic ally has forced Tehran to reconsider its regional strategy.
Syria had long been a critical part of Iran’s network, providing a vital link to Lebanon and serving as a support base for Hezbollah. Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Iran invested between $30 and $50 billion to sustain Assad’s regime. Now, with Assad’s fall and Iran’s reduced influence, Iran faces logistical challenges and mounting opposition from Israel, making a return to its former position in Syria increasingly difficult.
Iran’s capacity to reassert its influence in Syria remains uncertain. The new Syrian government has shown reluctance to engage with Iran, with regional and international stakeholders pressuring Damascus to limit Iranian involvement.
Domestically, Iranian perspectives on Syria vary. Hardliners view the new Syrian leadership as a Turkish-backed terrorist threat, while others see disengagement from Syria as a necessary step to reduce financial burdens. Meanwhile, Iran continues to advocate for Syria’s sovereignty and condemns Israeli actions in the region.
In the aftermath of Assad’s downfall, sectarian violence has surged, particularly targeting Alawite and Shiite communities. Pro-Assad fighters have clashed with interim government forces, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, primarily among Alawites. Despite accusations of Iranian involvement, there is no substantial evidence to support claims of Tehran’s participation in the violence.
As Iran’s influence diminishes, Turkey has emerged as a dominant player in Syria, supporting Islamist factions and expanding its regional presence. Recent agreements between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) further complicate the regional landscape. While Turkey gains traction, Iran must decide whether to engage diplomatically with Syria’s new leadership or attempt to destabilize the region to regain leverage.
Iran’s long-term interests in Syria may involve seeking entry points for economic engagement or leveraging instability to rebuild influence. However, with growing international scrutiny and limited options, Tehran’s capacity to regain a significant foothold in Syria remains in question. In this evolving landscape, the trajectory of Iran-Syria relations will likely depend on
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