There is a high likelihood that Russia has launched an operation to destabilize the situation in Moldova. Earlier, we predicted that Moscow was planning a subversive operation in Gagauzia to trigger a separatist scenario.
More on this story: Moldova threatened by outside-staged conflict in Gagauzia
More on this story: Risk of political unrest high for Moldova
On March 25, Evghenia Gutsul, the head of Gagauzia, was arrested in Chișinău’s airport while attempting to leave the country. Gutsul is suspected of receiving funding from Russia through the exiled oligarch Ilan Shor. Prosecutors are now seeking her preventive detention.
Gutsul is a member of the Shor Party, which has faced criminal investigations for illegal financing. In 2017, Ilan Shor was sentenced to seven years and six months in prison for his involvement in the theft of $1 billion from Moldova’s banking system. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) allegedly facilitated Shor’s transfer of key assets, including shares in Chișinău International Airport, to Russian businessman Andrey Goncharenko. According to FSB documents from 2020, the airport was considered a “Shor asset.”
Investigators claim that Gutsul regularly smuggled Russian money into Moldova. She is accused of coordinating party operations and receiving funds from an organized criminal group totaling over 42.5 million Moldovan leu.
We believe the FSB may be directly involved in Gutsul’s arrest to provoke protests against the Moldovan government. Since 2016, Russian intelligence operations in Moldova have reportedly been overseen by General Dmitry Milyutin, Deputy Chief of the FSB’s Fifth Service Department of Operational Information. Milyutin frequently operated through Igor Chaika, the son of Russia’s former prosecutor general, who was recently appointed Deputy Head of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia’s foreign cultural agency. Our earlier assessments linking Chaika’s appointment to destabilization plans are further supported by recent developments.
Working alongside Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Chaika is believed to have devised strategies to undermine Moldovan President Maia Sandu and return Moldova to Russia’s sphere of influence. Notably, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), has stated that Moldova is following a path similar to Ukraine, suggesting a coordinated effort by the FSB and SVR to destabilize the country.
In support of Gutsul, a protest has already gathered, featuring regional officials, members of the People’s Assembly, and activists from the opposition bloc “Victory.” We consider it highly likely that Russian operatives may attempt to seize administrative buildings in Gagauzia as part of further escalation efforts.
