Coalitions, Crises, and Contestation: Malawi Faces a Decisive Vote

The 2025 elections in Malawi are less about ideological divides and more about coalition-building, leadership credibility, and economic survival. The outcome will determine whether Malawi sustains its democratic trajectory—or slips into polarization and contested governance at a time of acute economic and social vulnerability.

• Malawi’s democracy, hailed after the 2020 re-run, faces a crucial test. Rising campaign violence, mistrust in institutions, and the risk of contested results could erode democratic credibility if not carefully managed. Severe economic hardship—inflation, forex shortages, and drought-driven food insecurity—dominates the campaign.

Public frustration with corruption and governance failures may tilt voters toward candidates promising economic stabilization and reform.

Who’s Running (Confirmed)

• Lazarus Chakwera (Malawi Congress Party, MCP) – the incumbent president running for a second term; allied previously with UTM, now solo after UTM’s withdrawal.  
• Peter Mutharika (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP) – former president (2014–2020); endorsed by DPP; running mate: Jane Ansah (former Electoral Commission Chair
• Joyce Banda (People’s Party, PP) – former president (2012–2014); launched her campaign under “A.Ma.Y.I.” platform with focus on youth and women; running mate: Khumbo Kachali. 
• Dalitso Kabambe (United Transformation Movement, UTM) – ex‑central bank governor; now UTM leader; running mate: Matthews Mtumbuka
• Atupele Muluzi (United Democratic Front, UDF) – party leader; declared candidacy with running mate Dr. Rex Kalolo.  
• Plus several additional candidates from smaller parties, totaling 17 confirmed presidential candidates

• Highly Competitive Landscape
  • With 17 presidential candidates, but realistically a contest between incumbent Lazarus Chakwera (MCP)and former president Peter Mutharika (DPP), the race is fragmented and almost certain to head into a second-round runoff under the 50%+1 system.
• Fractured Alliances, Kingmakers Emerging
  • The collapse of the Tonse Alliance has weakened Chakwera, while Mutharika benefits from a revitalized DPP base.
  • Joyce Banda (PP) and Dalitso Kabambe (UTM) are positioned as kingmakers: whichever side secures their backing in a runoff will likely clinch victory.
• Possible Outcomes
  • Mutharika comeback if opposition consolidates.
  • Chakwera narrow survival if he rebuilds bridges with UTM and PP.
  • Contentious aftermath if results are close, raising risks of protests or legal disputes.

 

The Frontrunners

• Opinion polling (July 2025) shows Peter Mutharika leading with ~43% public expectation of victory, while Chakwera stands at ~26
• This suggests a tight race, with Mutharika holding an edge in public perception.

Domestic Landscape & Election Context

Political Environment

• This is the second election under the 50% +1 rule, following the 2020 Court-ordered re-run
• UTM’s exit from the ruling Tonse Alliance weakened Chakwera’s coalition.  
• Civil society concerns include threats to press freedom, opposition campaign access, and fairness across the board. 
• Growing political tension and incidents of violence during campaigns raise alarms about democratic regression.  
• A peace declaration signed in Lilongwe (Aug 2025) signals efforts to counter campaign-related violence.  

Social & Economic Context

• Malawi faces a drought-driven economic crisis, food insecurity, youth unemployment, and inflation exceeding 20
• The economy remains fragile: growth projections dropped from 4% to 3.2%, with foreign exchange shortages affecting essential imports.  
• Long-standing structural issues persist: corruption, poverty, failing institutions, and urban mistrust in leadership. 

Campaign Focus & Policy Priorities

Based on candidate platforms and public discourse:

• Economic stabilization: tackling inflation, forex shortages, expanding agriculture/tourism/mining for FX earnings. 
• Anti-corruption reform: Reinvigorating institutions like the Anti‑Corruption Bureau (ACB); restore public trust 
• Youth employment & education: Especially emphasized by Joyce Banda (A.Ma.Y.I. campaign) focusing on free secondary education and youth business support
• Electoral integrity: Strengthening MEC credibility, legal frameworks, public trust in vote counts 

Possible Outcomes (Given Electoral Framework)

Given the 50% + 1 threshold and the multiparty field:

1. *outright win (less likely): If a candidate like Mutharika or Chakwera consolidates support and avoids a runoff.
2. Second-round runoff (high likelihood): Especially if vote share fragments—runoff within 30 days expected.
   • In a runoff, coalition dynamics matter—UTM or UDF endorsements could swing results.
3. Post-election risks: Disputed results, protests, or claims of rigging could test democratic resilience. Domestic observers and legal institutions will be critical in legitimizing the outcome 

Category	Insights
Candidates	Chakwera (incumbent), Mutharika, Banda, Kabambe (UTM), Muluzi (UDF), others
Front-runner	Mutharika in lead per polls (~43%), Chakwera ~26%
Situation	Economic crisis, political fragmentation, electoral tension
Policy Priorities	Economy, anti-corruption, youth & education, electoral integrity
Outcomes	Likely runoff; coalition shifts critical; institutional resilience key

Since no single candidate looks positioned to cross the 50% +1 threshold outright, the runoff will be shaped by alliances among the five major contenders.

1. Baseline: The Leading Camps

• Peter Mutharika (DPP) – polling lead, strong base in the Southern Region. Needs allies to expand into Central and Northern Regions.
• Lazarus Chakwera (MCP) – incumbent, weakened after UTM’s withdrawal. Holds Central Region core. Needs alliances to overcome incumbency fatigue and economic frustration.
• Joyce Banda (PP) – former president, with residual support networks, especially among women and youth. Can’t win outright but could be a kingmaker.
• Dalitso Kabambe (UTM) – appeals to technocrats, younger urban voters. Breakaway from Tonse Alliance weakens Chakwera.
• Atupele Muluzi (UDF) – legacy appeal from father’s era, some base in the Eastern Region. Vote share is small, but strategically important.

2. Potential Coalition Scenarios

Scenario A: Opposition Consolidation (Mutharika + Banda + UDF)

• Logic: Banda’s PP and Muluzi’s UDF could swing behind Mutharika to defeat the incumbent.
• Impact: Would create a powerful Southern + Eastern + parts of Central coalition.
• Likelihood: Medium–High, since Banda and Muluzi are historically closer to DPP than to MCP.

Scenario B: Incumbent Survival (Chakwera + Banda + UTM)

• Logic: Chakwera secures Banda’s women/youth support and reconciles with Kabambe’s UTM.
• Impact: Stronger in Central Region, plus urban youth vote. Could offset Mutharika’s Southern dominance.
• Likelihood: Medium, but strained: UTM left Tonse Alliance precisely due to mistrust of MCP.

Scenario C: UTM as the Decisive Swing

• Logic: Kabambe’s UTM aligns with whichever side offers more in terms of economic reform portfolios or cabinet posts.
• Impact: Could provide 8–12% swing nationally, enough to decide a runoff.
• Likelihood: High – UTM is small but pragmatic, already proven by breaking Tonse Alliance.

Scenario D: Fragmented Opposition, No Major Coalition

• Logic: Banda and Muluzi stay neutral or fractured; UTM negotiates late.
• Impact: Voter fatigue favors incumbent advantage, even in a weak economy.
• Likelihood: Medium–Low, as smaller parties know irrelevance awaits without coalition deals.

3. Domestic Policy Bargaining Chips in Coalition Talks

• Economic portfolios (Finance, Trade, Energy) → highly sought to control forex shortages and inflation response.
• Anti-corruption reform promises → Banda and UTM demand institutional guarantees.
• Social policy pledges → free secondary education, youth entrepreneurship, women’s empowerment (Banda’s core agenda).
• Regional equity → appointments and development funding for North & East will be traded in coalition talks.

4. Possible Outcomes

1. Mutharika Returns – most plausible if DPP secures Banda + UDF (and even part of UTM).
2. Chakwera Survives Narrowly – possible only with a strong Banda + UTM alliance and heavy turnout in Central Region.
3. Hung/contested legitimacy – disputed results, protests, or court petitions are possible if the runoff is close.

✅ Key Insight: The runoff will likely be decided not by Mutharika or Chakwera’s base, but by the kingmaking role of Joyce Banda (PP) and Dalitso Kabambe (UTM).