SVR’s Narrative on EU Interference in Serbia: Claims, Risks, and Reality”

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) continues to discredit itself by taking part in disinformation campaigns targeting foreign leaders. These operations are framed as part of Moscow’s effort to counter Western influence and to strengthen the Kremlin’s own. In doing so, Russia creates the illusion of breaking out of international isolation, while projecting the image of a protector of authoritarian partners by “exposing Western plots” to topple them through social unrest.

The Kremlin’s strategy reflects its own fears of losing power, fears that it projects onto its allies. In Moscow’s worldview, social protest can only originate from abroad. This narrative is rooted in the regime’s ideological reinterpretation of the 1917 Revolution, which, according to the Kremlin’s revisionism, was supposedly orchestrated by German intelligence and Zionist elements within the leftist movement. This allows today’s Russian leadership to deny responsibility for the country’s own governance crises, blaming instead foreign states.

The same logic can be seen in the way Moscow shifts responsibility for the war against Ukraine onto NATO, despite the fact that the order to launch hostilities was publicly signed in the Kremlin by Vladimir Putin himself.

Russia, moreover, has no credible information about protest movements in Serbia. It cannot be ruled out, however, that the Kremlin is itself providing support to opposition and protest forces there—an attempt to deepen President Vučić’s dependence on Moscow and to stoke tension in Belgrade as a means of control.

Most recently, the SVR alleged that the European Union is preparing to stage a “color revolution” in Serbia, relying on protests, youth radicalization, independent media, and NGOs. With this, the Kremlin signals its readiness to shield Vučić’s regime in exchange for his loyalty.

This includes claims that a resolution will be adopted, or used, to legitimize or accelerate destabilization.

2. What the SVR Claims – Key Elements

Claim	Source (SVR)	Elements of the Claim
EU planning a “Serbian Maidan” (Ukraine-style revolution)	SVR via Russian	Mobilize youth & protesters, use media/NGOs, trigger protests around symbolic dates (e.g. Novi Sad anniversary on Nov 1)
Independent media & NGOs funded by “European liberal elites” being used to radicalize public	Names of media outlets given in SVR list: FoNet, RAM Network, Vreme, Južne vesti, etc	The funding is alleged to come from EU/democratic sources, part of influence infrastructure
Goal: install a government loyal to Brussels	SVR statements argue that the EU seeks leadership in Serbia that is “obedient and loyal to Brussels.”

• Serbia is a candidate country There are recent EU Parliament resolutions critical of Serbia, especially after the December 2023 elections: concerns about rule of law, media freedom, election integrity One resolution (February 2024) called for stopping EU funding if serious abuses are discovered; another asked for expert missions he EU 2023-24 Commission reports reference deficiencies in democratic institutions, alignment with EU foreign policy, etc 

4. Assessment of SVR’s Claims

4.1 Credibility and Disinformation

• The SVR’s narrative aligns with known patterns of Russian intelligence communication: accusing the West of plotting revolutions, highlighting media/NGOs as foreign agents, using symbolic dates.
• While there are real EU resolutions and pressure, they are documented in public policy and the accession framework; these are not secret plans, but part of EU’s enlargement and democracy conditionality.

4.2 What the EU Can and Cannot Do

What the EU can do:

• Pass resolutions in the European Parliament condemning election irregularities, urging reforms. Already happening. 
• Condition funding, aid, accession chapters on improvements in rule of law

What the EU likely cannot do (without cooperation):

• Orchestrate a fully coordinated “Maidan”-style regime change without internal opposition momentum. EU lacks direct operational leverage (military or covert) in Serbia.
• Force changes against a government that resists unless internal or external pressure is overwhelming.

4.3 Motives of SVR / Russian Side

• To discredit EU influence in Serbia, portraying it as foreign interference rather than legitimate integration process.
• To foster anti-EU sentiment domestically in Serbia, strengthen pro-Russian narratives (sovereignty, independence, memory of NATO, church). SVR mentions Serbian Orthodox Church, memory of NATO bombings
• To delegitimize independent media & NGOs by associating them with foreign plots.

5. Worst-Case Scenario (if SVR’s Claims Partly Real or Successful)

• Escalation of street protests, possibly violent, especially around symbolic anniversaries or events.
• Government crackdown: arrests, media suppression, labeling NGOs as foreign agents.
• A sharp polarization in society: between pro-EU youth / civil society and nationalist / pro-government factions.
• Possible external interventions: EU reducing funding; sanctions, cutting of IPA (instrument for pre-accession assistance) funds.

Indicator	What to Monitor
Funding trails	Are there new grants from EU / Western democratic foundations to media/NGOs in Serbia recently? Their transparency.
Protests around symbolic dates	Particularly November 1 (Novi Sad anniversary) or other key dates; reports of planned mobilization.
Media narratives	How are independent media being portrayed in Serbian pro-government outlets? Are they linked rhetorically to foreign plots?
Government responses	Legal measures against media/NGOs; labeling foreign agent status; arrests; censorship.
EU action	Any new resolutions, expert missions, conditionality measures; public statements by EU or member states about Serbian democratic backslide.

Sergey Naryshkin’s agency has increasingly resorted to direct information operations after losing many of its assets in Europe that had operated under diplomatic cover.

1. Introduction

• SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service) recently alleged that the EU is preparing to stage a “color revolution” in Serbia, using protests, youth radicalization, independent media, and NGOs as instruments
• This includes claims that a resolution will be adopted, or used, to legitimize or accelerate destabilization
• Purpose of this paper: evaluate the claims, possible motivations, real capacity of the EU to pass and enforce such a resolution, and what the implications could be.

2. What the SVR Claims – Key Elements

Claim	Source (SVR)	Elements of the Claim
EU planning a “Serbian Maidan” (Ukraine-style revolution)	SVR via Russian media statements	Mobilize youth & protesters, use media/NGOs, trigger protests around symbolic dates (e.g. Novi Sad anniversary on Nov 1)
Independent media & NGOs funded by “European liberal elites” being used to radicalize public	Names of media outlets given in SVR list: FoNet, RAM Network, Vreme, Južne vesti, etc.	The funding is alleged to come from EU/democratic sources, part of influence infrastructure
Goal: install a government loyal to Brussels	SVR statements argue that the EU seeks leadership in Serbia that is “obedient and loyal to Brussels.”

3. Context: EU-Serbia Relations & Existing Resolutions

• Serbia is a candidate country for EU membership; its accession process is ongoing
• There are recent EU Parliament resolutions critical of Serbia, especially after the December 2023 elections: concerns about rule of law, media freedom, election integrity.  
• One resolution (February 2024) called for stopping EU funding if serious abuses are discovered; another asked for expert missions
• The EU 2023-24 Commission reports reference deficiencies in democratic institutions, alignment with EU foreign policy, etc 

4. Assessment of SVR’s Claims

4.1 Credibility and Disinformation

• The SVR’s narrative aligns with known patterns of Russian intelligence communication: accusing the West of plotting revolutions, highlighting media/NGOs as foreign agents, using symbolic dates.
• While there are real EU resolutions and pressure, they are documented in public policy and the accession framework; these are not secret plans, but part of EU’s enlargement and democracy conditionality.

4.2 What the EU Can and Cannot Do

What the EU can do:

• Pass resolutions in the European Parliament condemning election irregularities, urging reforms. Already happening
• Condition funding, aid, accession chapters on improvements in rule of law/media freedom. This exists in the enlargement methodology.

Orchestrate a fully coordinated “Maidan”-style regime change without internal opposition momentum. EU lacks direct operational leverage (military or covert) in Serbia.

• Force changes against a government that resists unless internal or external pressure is overwhelming.

4.3 Motives of SVR / Russian Side

• To discredit EU influence in Serbia, portraying it as foreign interference rather than legitimate integration process.
• To foster anti-EU sentiment domestically in Serbia, strengthen pro-Russian narratives (sovereignty, independence, memory of NATO, church). SVR mentions Serbian Orthodox Church, memory of NATO bombings.  
• To delegitimize independent media & NGOs by associating them with foreign plots.

5. Worst-Case Scenario (if SVR’s Claims Partly Real or Successful)

• Escalation of street protests, possibly violent, especially around symbolic anniversaries or events.
• Government crackdown: arrests, media suppression, labeling NGOs as foreign agents.
• A sharp polarization in society: between pro-EU youth / civil society and nationalist / pro-government factions.
• Possible external interventions: EU reducing funding; sanctions, cutting of IPA (instrument for pre-accession assistance) funds.

6. Indicators to Watch (“Truth vs Narrative”)

Indicator	What to Monitor
Funding trails	Are there new grants from EU / Western democratic foundations to media/NGOs in Serbia recently? Their transparency.
Protests around symbolic dates	Particularly November 1 (Novi Sad anniversary) or other key dates; reports of planned mobilization.
Media narratives	How are independent media being portrayed in Serbian pro-government outlets? Are they linked rhetorically to foreign plots?
Government responses	Legal measures against media/NGOs; labeling foreign agent status; arrests; censorship.
EU action	Any new resolutions, expert missions, conditionality measures; public statements by EU or member states about Serbian democratic backslide.

It is possible that Naryshkin’s position is weakening, and he is now seeking to demonstrate effectiveness at least on one track.

• The SVR’s claims, while exaggerated in some respects, tap into genuine EU-Serbia tensions over democratic governance and media freedom.
• Much of what the EU is doing is consistent with its conditionality as part of accession; the “plot to install a government loyal to Brussels” rhetoric is a striking exaggeration, but one engineered to influence domestic perceptions.
• The risk is that narrative alone, once repeated widely, could mobilize or radicalize segments of society, feeding instability. The key is to monitor whether EU action goes beyond policy/reform/conditionality into stronger enforcement, and how Belgrade responds.