Salvadoran President’s intention to run for president again in 2024 erodes democratic state institutions. It is highly likely that he could become a dictator if he is re-elected.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele was officially nominated by his New Ideas party to run for reelection next year. New Ideas also announced that current Vice President Felix Ulloa would run for reelection in the ballot scheduled for Feb. 4, 2024. He announced last September that he would seek another term in office. This came after the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court ruled in 2021 that his candidacy for reelection was permitted and ordered the electoral court to allow it. In 2021, Bukele’s administration replaced five Supreme Court judges and the attorney general — two institutions with which he had clashed — as well as a third of all the country’s judges.
The announcement of Bukele’s registration to run for re-election comes as he and his New Ideas party have taken steps to reduce the number of municipalities in the country from 262 to 44. On June 14, the main legislative body officially approved the reduction of municipalities, with Ernesto Castro, the president of the country’s congress and a member of the New Ideas party, calling the act “a historic moment.”
Ahead of the vote to reduce the number of municipalities, the legislative branch approved an electoral reform that decreased the number of congressional representatives from 84 to 60. All of these developments are part of efforts by the Bukele administration to concentrate power around himself and his allies.
The changes in territorial jurisdictions have been carried out by governments to limit the opposition and increase its own power, since more control of resources is given.
Bukele’s administration is manipulating public opinion to create a favorable image by invading social networks with its messages and with a truly unprecedented communications device in the history of El Salvador.
Salvadoran law requires political parties to hold internal elections to select their presidential candidates for 2024 elections.
However, Constitutional lawyers maintain that Bukele’s candidacy would violate at least four articles of the constitution, including Article 154, which states: “The presidential term will be five years and will begin and end on June 1, without the person who has held the presidency being able to continue in their functions even one more day.”
The Salvadoran Constitution – in force since 1983 – establishes in Article 152 that “anyone who has held the Presidency of the Republic for more than six months, consecutive or not, during the immediately preceding period, or within the last six months prior to the presidential term” is prohibited for being re-elected to the post. That is to say, in no way are two successive mandates permissible… although the wording leaves the door open to alternate mandates.
Bukele is not the first president of El Salvador to violate the constitution and seek re-election. The last to win re-election was the dictator Maximiliano Hernández Martínez, more than seventy-five years ago, who also won his bid after consolidating power through the co-optation of state institutions.
The Vice-President Ulloa, who is a well-known lawyer, said Bukele just has to ask Congress for a leave of absence by Dec. 1 in order to be able to run again.
While constitutional bans on reelection were once common in Latin America — where some countries have a history of “caudillo” strongmen perpetuating themselves in power — those term limits have been removed, overturned or ignored in a number of cases, including Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia.
Bukele decided to run for president knowing that he maintains approval ratings above 80% because of his harsh crackdown on street gangs, but he is considered controversial internationally. That was a result of suspending some fundamental rights and thousands of complaints of rights violations. Some of the measures taken by El Salvador during the state of exception contradict established human rights norms.
Observers say many young men appear to have been rounded up simply because of their appearance, or where they live.To date, at least 68,000 people have been arrested. Official statistics show a very significant reduction in homicides and other crimes. Human rights organizations, however, have denounced an extreme use of force and systematic human rights violations in the jails, which include deaths from torture, beatings, strangulation, extreme overcrowding, violations of due process, lack of guarantees, mass detentions and death while in custody.
Bukele’s supporters argue that he is a strong leader who has brought peace and security to the country after years of gang violence. They point to his approval rating of more than 80 percent of the population as evidence of his popularity.
Bukele is the clear favorite of 2024 elections, but his opponents are hoping to capitalize on the concerns about his authoritarian tendencies.
The outcome of the election will have a major impact on the future of El Salvador. If Bukele is re-elected, it will be a sign that the country is moving towards a more authoritarian future. However, if his opponents are able to defeat him, it could be a sign that the country is still committed to democracy.
The Bukele’s decision is the culmination of a process that began in September of 2021. That same year, the Electoral Tribunal reported that it accepted the resolution of the judges and gave the green light for Bukele and Ulloa to register as candidates.
In addition to his controversial war against the gangs, Bukele has made progress in controlling the state apparatus. The president already consolidated his power back in 2021, with an unprecedented victory in the legislative elections. The unprecedented number of pro-Bukele deputies in the Legislative Assembly gave him a free hand to push his political agenda through.
Although Salvadorans celebrate the low crime rates and show adoration for their president, some of Bukele’s actions have raised alerts about an authoritarian turn in his government.
El Salvador’s current president, who has previously called himself “the coolest dictator in the world,” has taken similar steps to concentrate power around himself.
Bukele’s social media presence has also benefited from the support of paid propaganda by online trolls who have carried out attacks against his critics in the press and against his political opponents, as some intl news agencies reported in November 2022. Yet his policies seem to have done little to resolve the economic crisis the country faces.
