Russia has stepped up recruitment of Latin Americans to compensate for the loss of Russian troops after fighting in Ukraine.Some Ukrainian CYBINT papers speak of at least 199 Cubans who signed up with the Russian forces to fight in Ukraine. OSINT investigation published in Ukraine and some reputable publications confirm these data.
Deputy commander for political and military work at the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, Western military district of Russia, located in Tula, arranged recruitment of Cubans to fight in Ukraine. The same person is the head of the selection point for contract service.
We may draw some conclusions, based on how the recruitment of foreigners was arranged:
- Russian units’ commanders have the task to make up for the heavy losses after fighting in Ukraine, as their career on the home front most likely depends on the success of their efforts.
2. If they recruit foreigners, it means there is no more people in the regions of Russia to mobilize, and further mobilization threatens regional social stability.
3. We are skeptical about intellectual capacity of regional officers in Russia to recruit foreigners for the war in Ukraine. That is why we suppose that some Russian commanders who lost manpower in Ukraine, cooperate with the FSB in search for foreigners to mobilize.
Our information suggests the FSB and Security Council analysts warned the Kremlin of negative consequences if mobilization drags on, with high risk of political and social instability in Russian regions. The FSB, in this light, facilitates recruitment of foreigners to fight in the war, and that makes sense. The fact that Nikolai Patrushev (FSB handler) visited Havana in March 2023 most probably speaks for existing bilateral agreements to recruit Cubans for the war in Ukraine.
- Open sources inform of Tula + America Latina international festival that takes place in Tula. The last event took place in July 2023, with Cubans among participants.
We believe the FSB and its agents recruit Cubans, coach people who live on the island and urge them to sign military contracts, promising financial reward.
We don’t see any other motivation for Cubans to sign contracts other than a promise to get payment.
Having analyzed personal data of Cubans who signed contracts with Russian army, we may conclude that Russians do not impose strict requirements for candidates either by age (one of the candidates is 69 years old) or by military service experience. That is likely to speak about high personnel shortage in Russian troops, and simultaneous Russian effort to save on payments by lowering the requirements for candidates.
Latin Americans are paid 204,000 rubles monthly in a combat zone, which equates to 49,718 Cuban pesos, as the minimum wage on the island in 2023 is 3,830 Cuban pesos (USD 160). That means a Cuban mercenary in Russia is paid monthly a minimum annual salary in Cuba. This supports the conclusionthat financial reward for contract service is sole motive for Latin Americans to be recruited by Russians. It is doubtful, at the same time, that families of foreign contractors are guaranteed to receive the payment if they die in fighting.We believe Russian Embassy in Havana provides financial support for Cubans when they enter Russia. Havana-Moscow plane ticket costs 140,072 rubles, which is 34,138 Cuban pesos or 8 months of minimum wage in Cuba. That is why Cuban recruits for contract service in Russian army unlikely come to Russia by own savings. Russian embassy most likely interviews them for pre-selection. Weobservedsimilar practice at the Russian Embassy in Ethiopia in April 2022.
Cuban Foreign Ministry also confirmed the information about Russians recruiting Cubans to make up for the Kremlin’s losses in Ukraine, as it disclosed an illegal network for transporting mercenaries to Russia to take part in the war against Ukraine. Those attempts were thwarted, with criminal proceedings launched, the Ministry said.
We doubt, however, this is a serious statement, as Havana government was unlikely unaware of extensive recruitment by Russians under the cover of the embassy. Havana accuses its enemies of spreading false information, targeting to discredit the country and make it seen as complicit in scheming. ID data of Cubans who came to Russia to sign military contract, however, speak for an attempt by Cuba to keep a straight face when the evidence shows it participates in human trafficking and mercenarism.
Papers of Dias Romero Juan Pablo, a Colombian citizen, in the list of candicates to serve in Russian army show the scale of the problem that goes beyond the Caribbean. Russia most probably recruits foreigners for the war in Ukraine in Nicaragua, Venezuela and Honduras, supported by Russian diplomatic institutions, Rossotrudnichestvo offices, and through Cuban intelligence that collaborates actively with FSB and Russian military intelligence.Moscow is likely afraid of repeated rioting if Russians get to know the number of Russian casualties in Ukrainian war. For this regard, the Kremlin will try to maximize the number of foreign mercenaries in the war against Ukraine. This tactics goes in line with new Russian neo-colonial policy in Africa and Latin America, as Russian regime views it as a source of cheap natural and human resources. We believe the military command will use mercenaries from Latin America and Africa in the most dangerous areas with high loss.
