Civil unrest has been a longstanding phenomenon in Myanmar, situated to the northeast of India. Myanmar has been entangled in a protracted civil conflict spanning seven decades, with ramifications extending to the 1,600 km India-Myanmar border, which adjoins the northeastern Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. The consequences of Myanmar’s enduring civil strife over the past seven decades have reverberated in these Indian states. The multifaceted civil conflict in Myanmar has involved various factions at different junctures. The genesis of the ongoing civil discord can be traced back to the 2020 Myanmar national elections.
The pivotal general elections, conducted on November 8, 2020, held significance in fostering democracy within the nation. The National League for Democracy, led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, secured an overwhelming victory, clinching 396 out of 476 parliamentary seats, a substantial increase compared to the 2015 elections. This electoral outcome was a resounding mandate for advancing democracy and diminishing military intervention in Myanmar. However, Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, rejected the election results and, without concrete evidence, demanded a recount, alleging electoral malfeasance. In February 2021, the Tatmadaw orchestrated a coup, seizing power and detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and other elected National League for Democracy leaders. This coup, declared under a state of emergency, disrupted the democratic progress in the country. International condemnation ensued, with the United Nations Security Council urging the immediate release of the detainees and a return to democratic processes.
Subsequent to the coup, peaceful protests erupted across Myanmar as citizens demanded the reinstatement of democracy and the release of detained leaders. Despite the peaceful nature of these demonstrations, the Tatmadaw resorted to force to quell the protests. Concurrently, a coalition comprising diverse ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy entities coalesced into an armed resistance movement. These groups, engaged in a prolonged struggle against the Tatmadaw for increased autonomy in their respective regions, found additional impetus in the political developments.
Elected Members of Parliament from the 2020 elections formed an exiled government named the National Unity Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, recognized as the official government of Myanmar by the European Parliament. The Tatmadaw, currently in power, deemed the National Unity Government illegal and labeled it a terrorist organization. In response to the Tatmadaw’s post-coup crackdown, a new wave of resistance materialized in the form of the People’s Defense Force (PDF), comprising Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and supported by the exiled National Unity Government. The PDF advocated armed struggle, uniting ethnic groups across Myanmar. Despite being designated as a terrorist entity by the Tatmadaw, the People’s Defense Force garnered substantial support within Myanmar and internationally. Within a year of the civil war’s onset, the National Unity Government established representative offices in various countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, France, the Czech Republic, Australia, South Korea, and Japan.
Amidst the ongoing political turbulence in Myanmar, another influential player is the Three Brotherhood Alliance. With aspirations for autonomy prevalent in various provinces of Myanmar, the alliance comprises three ethnic military groups: the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Noteworthy clashes erupted in 2016 between the Rohingya population and local Buddhists in Rakhine state, prompting military interventions by the National League for Democracy government. The subsequent chaos in Rakhine State saw the Rohingya Salvation Wing of the Arakan Army, involving Rohingya civilians, engaging in attacks against military posts. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, primarily active in Shan Province, have previously confronted the Tatmadaw on multiple occasions. The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, initiated on October 27, 2023, sparked a renewed large-scale armed conflict in Myanmar. Following these clashes, various groups, including the Chin National Front, the Kachin Region People’s Defense Force, different People’s Defense Force factions in Sagaing Region, the Arakan Army in Rakhine State, and the Karenni National Defense Force in Karenni State, joined the armed struggle.
The proximity of Chin, Kachin states, and Sagaing Region to India, and the official border crossing in Chin State adjacent to Mizoram, has prompted efforts by Rihkhawdar to capture the area. The influx of Myanmarese refugees into Mizoram, driven by ethnic similarities between the Chinese state of Myanmar and the Indian state of Mizoram, as well as the Kuki ethnic group in Manipur, is anticipated to escalate instability in India’s northeastern states. This migration is also likely to contribute to an increase in illegal arms and drug trade. The sudden eruption of the civil war in Myanmar, coinciding with deteriorating conditions in Manipur, serves as a stark alert for India’s northeastern states. Given the close ties between Myanmar’s Chin ethnic group and the Kukis of Manipur, the refugee migration holds significant implications for Manipur’s political landscape.
The Indian government maintains amicable relations with Myanmar’s Tatmadaw, grounded in a pragmatic approach reflective of realism in international politics. Cooperation with the Tatmadaw is deemed crucial for ensuring the security of India’s borders, considering its military strength surpasses that of other insurgent groups. Despite India’s democratic stance and historical support for official democratic governments in Myanmar, the primary emphasis remains on border security. The Myanmar policy of the Indian government underscores occasional pressure on the Tatmadaw to uphold democratic principles. The imperative of securing India’s borders, especially maritime borders, aligns with the geopolitical context of Myanmar’s northern border adjoining China. The alliance with the Tatmadaw is viewed as pivotal for safeguarding India’s maritime borders and countering potential dominance by Beijing in Myanmar, with implications for the Bay of Bengal.Additionally, Myanmar holds substantial economic importance for India, participating in regional economic initiatives such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC). Collaborating with the government in Myanmar’s capital is considered a pragmatic strategy to advance India’s regional trade interests. Simultaneously, India is actively engaged in humanitarian endeavors, striving to uphold the rights of the people of Myanmar, promote democracy, and contribute to the country’s economic progress. This involves aid in diverse sectors, including food, healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Indian support extends to funding food security programs, providing annual food aid to internally displaced persons, supplying medical resources, training healthcare professionals, and assisting in educational initiatives and infrastructure development projects. The overarching aim is to contribute to peace, order, and development in Myanmar. Over the past two years, India has balanced its diplomatic relations with the Tatmadaw while directing attention to the welfare of Myanmar’s populace.
