Self-promotion in Mali and rapprochement in Niger: signs of domestic differences in junta-led states

Asimi Goita, (the junta leader of Mali since 2021) promoted himself and assumed the special title of “supreme” commander of the “land army”.

He went further to promote five other members of the junta to the rank of four-star generals. The Council of Ministers that announced this development has among other people civilians serving on it.
Earlier this year, the junta placed a temporal ban on political activities. After much pressure from political actors, it was lifted. Regardless, there has not been any clear path for political transition since then.
In Burkina Faso, the junta has faced some countercoup attempts as the security situation gets worse with extremists making gains across time and space.
Ever since the three junta-led Sahel states announced the formation of a confederation and subsequently withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), they have projected some semblance of homogeneity and unity. From the announcement of closer security cooperation to the adoption of a unique passport, they have made their intention of handling their affairs known.

However, as time passes, different conditions and events in each country are increasingly producing outcomes that show that each country may eventually focus on its uniqueness.

The current self-promotion by Asimi Goita reflects both internal and external dynamics that challenge his power.Firstly, the fact that he staged a coup as a middle-level senior officer of the military creates institutional distortions within the military. This often leads to unity of command and loyalty challenges. For a country that has a politically active population, the situation is compounded. By elevating himself above all ranks, therefore, he seeks to put the military under his control in a legitimate way.

The junta leader in Burkina Faso, a captain, is also facing such institutional challenges. This has resulted in countercoups.

Secondly, Asimi Goita assumed the leadership of the confederation when it was created this year. Of the three junta-led states the only one that is led by a general was/is Niger. By promoting himself, Asimi Goita is also justifying his leadership of the confederation. This will not be lost on the generals in Niger.

More on this story: Military juntas’ confederation project may be orchestrated in Moscow

The generals in Niger have taken steps to de-escalate tensions between the country and Nigeria. The defense chiefs of both sides have met in Niamey recently to sign agreements on broad security cooperation.