Malian authorities set a dangerous precedent on holding talks with terrorist organizations. Thus, at least at the continental and sub-Saharan levels, Bamako legitimizes jihadists that eventually might turn terrorist groups’ members into legitimate political actors.
Mali’s president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita confirmed that government has opened the door to talks with jihadists to defuse mounting violence in the West African country. ‘These are political actors like any other’, he said, adding that they capable of negotiation.
Talking to jihadist leaders was long anathema to the government in Bamako, even as deadly attacks increased. Mali previously ignored several calls to negotiate.
The number of victims had risen ‘exponentially’, so Bamako probably hopes that it is time to explore new options. However, starting the talks Keita strikes out at neighboring countries where terrorist groups have already spread their activity.
President’s representative in central Mali has already sent envoys to Mali’s two leading jihadists, Amadou Koufa and Iyad Ag Ghaly.
Iyad Ag Ghaly is the leader of the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM), Al-Qaeda-linked group. Amadou Koufa is the leader of the Katiba Macina, affiliate of Ansar Dine group.
So, Keita has already endorsed talking to Al-Qaeda affiliates. However, the president has neither excluded the possibility of talks with the leader of Islamic State group’s Sahel branch, Adnane Abou Walid al-Sahraoui, nor has he endorsed them. France has labeled the Islamic State as its “priority enemy” in Mali.
Bamako is unlikely considering a scenario of using Al-Qaeda affiliated groups to weaken the positions of the Islamic State and undermine its resource base. This approach will lead to a further weakening of Mali and terrorist organizations’ legalization with eventual infiltration of the latter into the state structures. Thus, it is likely that with the start of negotiations with Al-Qaeda affiliates, Bamako will have to negotiate with the Islamic State representatives.
Doubtfully that these talks could also widen the gap between Al-Qaeda-linked groups and those allied to the Islamic State. These trends may arise only after Mali’s statehood dismantlement.
Malian government has likely talked to jihadists in secret before to broker ceasefires or retrieve hostages.
Issues on the table likely may include the state returning to abandoned parts of the country or militants joining the army.
In its attempt to defend Keita’s initiative the president’s team appeals to the negotiations Washington is holding with the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, these processes cannot be compared. Unlike the Islamic State and affiliated groups, the Taliban is a regional group that has not declared about its intentions to expand its influence beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan yet. At the same time the Islamic State, just like Al-Qaeda, intends to create a caliphate with wide indefinite boundaries.
According to our sources, the question is what compromise Bamako would accept because public opinion could turn on the negotiations.
There are doubts that Paris welcomes such negotiations. Late last year, French Army Chief of Staff Francois Lecointre said that France’s vision for a democratic and law-bound Mali ‘does not accommodate these types of negotiations’.Amid high risks of terrorist activity in France, Paris’ encouragement of Bamako’s actions will make tensions heightened and signal jihadists to mount violence in the region with better negotiation positions.
