Stratagem 30 of an ancient Chinese military treatise says, ‘Find an entrance and move forward until you usurp leadership’. It means to seize an initiative and power by progressively slow strengthening of positions. As a result, the one who initially enters the house as a guest will gradually become the absolute owner.
By this stratagem one can characterize the manner China pursues its current policy of strengthening its positions on different continents. The ultimate goal of this expansion is creation of a stable political, economic, military and cultural system covering the countries of Africa, Central, South, Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, Central-Eastern and Southern Europe.
The stratagem implies five steps to win power on a foreign territory.
The first step is to get a temporary guest status. China experienced this period at the end of the last century and strengthened its status as a foreign policy partner at the very beginning of the 2000s. Practically, it found reflection in increasing foreign policy contacts and the activity of the PRC emissaries in various parts of the world.
The second step is to grab the opportunity to begin strengthening your position. The aftermath of the bipolar world destruction and the loss of the keen interest of the United States and European countries in the states of Africa, Asia and Latin America served this very fair chance. After intensive struggles for the loyalty of the elites and the build-up of the military and political presence, many regimes were virtually thrown upon their own resources and the assistance volume has reduced significantly. China took advantage of this period and began an active increase in its presence where others have reduced it. Selective cooperation with individual states started.
The cooperation was based on the increase in trade, Beijing’s access to the resources of interest, investment and financial assistance. One of the first states where the Chinese began expansion was Angola with whom the bilateral cooperation program was launched in 2004. As a result, some sorts of goods were imported to the poor state and some loans were granted. Ultimately implementing ‘infrastructure activity in exchange for oil’ formula China has gained access to the necessary energy resources. China started cooperating with Latin America in selective projects and increasing the level of trade and investment. During the 2000s, China became the second most important, after the United States, trading partner of Brazil, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Venezuela, Uruguay and Panama. Russia is being gradually driven out of Central Asia in the same manner.
At this stage China was interested in fulfilling three main tasks. First, start of cooperation and demonstration of its benefits for the local political regimes. Secondly, having an opportunity to supply raw materials necessary for the Chinese economic development. Third, opening new market places for selling Chinese shoddy goods.
The most important here is that China has always respected cultural and political aspects of a particular country and imposed no additional requirements, either related with local values or political realities. The principle of economic pragmatism at this stage looked like a classic win-win model. Such a policy made the ‘guest’ get on the right side of the ‘host’ and hided the true intentions, as the war strategy requires.
As the stratagem says, at the third stage the position of the yet temporary guest should turn into the permanent guest status. This period is characterized by a global view of the geopolitical map of the world. Instead of maintaining discussions about selective cooperation with individual states or economic regions Beijing presented a global infrastructure development plan. They adopted ‘One Belt One Road’ project that is supposed to connect more than 60 states of Africa, Asia and Europe with an economic artery in the interests of China. Apart from resource extraction Beijing has invested lots of money in infrastructure and transportation. The aim of active investments in port and railroad infrastructure is to strengthen China’s presence in the region for a long time perspective, and load a lot of work on Chinese companies. Such projects are global-scaled and, as a rule, they cover several states and have the task to connect Beijing-interested key points in the context of China’s influence increase. China carries out transport infrastructure design and construction in Africa, South America, Europe and Asia.
At the same time, from Belarus and Kazakhstan to Nigeria and Ethiopia, China is lobbying for the creation of special zones giving preferences for investment, production and trade for the PRC’s companies. Almost all projects maximally engage the Chinese workforce, both highly qualified specialists and workers. According to estimates, in Africa alone, about 1 million Chinese are involved in the current projects.
Active cultural expansion is starting. Simultaneously China donates funds to the national cultural projects and expands educationally. Confucius institutes, served as a recruiting base as well, are expanding the Chinese language and culture study course. The institute network is constantly enlarging. Fifteen years ago Tianjin Normal University and the University of Nairobi in Kenya jointly established the first Africa’s Confucius Institute based at the University of Nairobi. As of now, 54 Confucius institutes and 27 Confucius classes have been opened in 41 African countries. Moreover, education projects for studying African youth in China are being launched. Compulsory or optional Chinese language study course in schools is being lobbied. For example, Chinese language is obligatory in Uganda, and it is a pupil’s right in the schools of Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda.
To ensure economic interests, China is developing a network of naval bases on the principle of ‘dual-use overall support facilities’. The country has signed agreements on the construction, modernization and use of appropriate port facilities with Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti. So far, China’s first naval base is located in Djibouti. However, the infrastructure in Yemen, Mozambique, Kenya and Tanzania can be used as logistical support points for the Chinese Navy. At the same time, China starts using land-based PMCs to protect its industrial and infrastructure facilities abroad. Today, Chinese PMCs are present in Kenya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan, Afghanistan, Iraq and other states.
The fourth stage in ‘guest-host transformation’ involves the power consolidation. At this stage, China is expanding its presence and becoming the key trade and investment partner. It is driving out other geoeconomic partners completely and usurping the economy as much as possible, and, thereby, providing a stable market for household goods sale and a predictable load of Chinese companies with construction and service orders. Chinese specialists and workforce are spreading, and the next investment project in the interests of the PRC becomes regular. The economic spheres that were of national interest a few years ago and supposed to be a joint project are ultimately becoming the property of Chinese corporations.
The Chinese workforce creates closed communities that function on a permanent base and expand. Business of Chinese, including overseas Chinese, dominates and the influence of Chinese culture is strengthening. Quotas for the number of Chinese workers are canceled in the countries where they have originally been. Active work is being performed to create a positive image for the ordinary non-Chinese citizen’s life and work in the Chinese cultural and economic environment. There are targeted information campaigns to introduce a model portraying life and work in China as prestigious and fashionable. As a result, an increasing number of young people are seeking for a job in Chinese companies.
The process of developing a network of full-fledged military bases and strengthening of power in the key states of the region has been launched. It is worth mentioning the constructed transport infrastructure and points of economic interest. The influence of China-controlled PMCs in the regions is strengthening. A trained pro-Chinese elite consisted of the local population is infiltrating government bodies to lobby the interests successfully and low-cost. Sales markets and influence on states previously being out of China’s interests for one reason or another are expanding now. The importance of the former allies and partners is falling completely.
The fifth stage of the stratagem implementation involves the final power transition. During this period one predicts an absolute political and economic control over the states included in Beijing’s expansion strategy. Chinese culture becomes dominant and prestigious, however, it still maintains local culture. Gradually, the PRC receives controlled elite that will rule the states for the next decades. The Pearl Thread project is being implemented. China is strengthening its positions significantly in the Indian Ocean, Central Asia and Africa. Expansion into the Atlantic begins through developing a network of bases on the West Coast of Africa, as well as a more active expansion into Latin America will be the next steps.
Surely, it is too early to talk about the full-scale implementation of this strategy, given the global conflict between the United States and China. However, so far Beijing has been successfully conducting this policy in its key regions. More details about the specifics of each of them can be found in the next analytic papers.
