Those who came to power following the military coup in Mali have ties with Russia, and that is likely to speak for the Kremlin’s involvement in organizing Ibrahim Boubacar Keita toppling.
September 21st, group of electors chosen by junta names former Mali defense minister and retired colonel Ba N’Daou as interim president, junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita as his Vice President.
Mali’s ruling junta has come under intense pressure from its West African neighbors to return power to civilians following the Aug. 18 coup. ECOWAS has issued an ultimatum to appoint an interim president and prime minister. It also required a civilian, not a soldier, to lead the country. N’Daou, however, has ties with the junta, and there are high chances that his appointment could have been planned in advance, even while preparing the coup. Russia is perhaps the only country in the world that has not condemned the military coup in Mali, which could mean Moscow’s tacit support for the rebels.
It goes in line with numerous facts of Russia’s having intervened in the election of a number of African leaders in recent years.
The Guardian, who investigated the leaks of some Kremlin documents, claimed that Russia had been active in 13 African countries, providing money, weapons, and military advisers for local leaders and rebels. It was actively working with the agent network meanwhile. Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, and Mali are referred to in the documents as “the countries we plan to work in.”
Just a few hours after the coup The Daily Beast wrote that the leaders of the coup that ousted Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita spent most of the year training in Russia before returning to boot out the democratically-elected leader at gunpoint, according to sources in the Malian military.
Malick Diaw and Sadio Camara, who led the coup under Assimi Goita, are two army colonels who hold top positions at the Kati military base and are reportedly very close friends. Both men were trained by the military in Russia.
A number of senior officers suspected Diaw and Camara planned the coup from Russia and that both men had been in contact with others involved in the plot from their training base abroad.
Ismael Wague, the spokesman for Mali’s mil junta also was in Russia. His profile photo on twitter account shows him with Russian girl during the celebration of 100 years anniversary of Russia’s Air force, at Ramensky airbase, near Moscow, “Russia” exhibition complex, August 12, 2012. We think this girl is not just a person who occasionally appeared on photo, because this photo was choosed as the main for his account.
Actual N’Daou’s appointment as interim president might indicate that Russia has been involved in the coup staging. 70-year old Ba N’Daou, now retired, is the country’s senior Air Force officer. Colonel nicknamed “Le Grand” received training in the Soviet Union prior to becoming aide-de-camp to former President Moussa Traore, Air Force Chief of Staff. He became the Defense Minister in 2014. He was undoubtedly recruited by Russian intelligence while studying in Russia.
He is fluent in Russian, thus favoring the establishment of new partnerships with Moscow. It is facilitated by mounting anti-French sentiment in the country. This factor could obviously determine Moscow’s decision to bring a favorably disposed, controlled person to power in Mali.
As the coup took place in Mali, the situation looked promising for this. Ibrahim Boubacara Keita had critically low ratings over corruption and poor economic management.
Assimi Goita, an army colonel, introduced himself as Mali’s new strongman in the coup. He is the opposite of Captain Sanogo, who came to power during the coup of 2012. Unlike Sanogo, he is a high-ranking officer, like all the key actors of this coup. Colonel Assimi Goita headed Mali’s special forces battalion based in the center of the country. American officers know him well as he completed the US-German military elite training course. We esteem Goita could have fallen under Russia’s influence amid Washington’s slowdown in Africa.
We cannot reject the possibility that Russians would have been monitoring coup leaders’ communication lines since the officers were foreign military personnel staying in Russia.
Camara, the co-leader of the coup, previously headed the military academy of Kati. BBC Afrique, citing a local news outlet, reported that he was born in 1979. He was director of the Kati military academy for many years until January when he left the post to attend military training in Russia alongside Diaw. He returned to Bamako from Moscow before the coup to begin a month-long leave period. Colonel Malick Diaw according to unconfirmed information was confined in Russia in September 2019. This could be the motivation for recruiting him by Russian mil intel.
The Kremlin may want to restore the relations between Mali and Russia of 1960s style, emerged following Mali’s independence from France.
Malians went out last January to ask for the departure of foreign forces in Mali. Moscow closely monitored the development of the protest movement in Mali, and the protests that began on June 6, 2020 under anti-French slogans. Protesters began to appear with pro-Russian posters and slogans “Russia – Yes! For Mali: Putin is the solution. ” The population has been protesting for political reform with some calling for President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita AKA IBK to step down.
There is no doubt that this action is intel op and directed in Russia.
The Kremlin has turned the tables in Mali to undermine France’s positions in the region and obtain additional mechanisms to influence the policy of official Paris. An attempt to create an Islamic State in the Sahel region poses a threat to the regional countries, a bulk of them focused on Paris.
Mali is a vital partner of France in the Sahel region, as, particularly, uranium concentrate is transported from deposits in Niger.
The initiative intercepted by the Kremlin from France in the fight against IS in the region can significantly reduce the blow to the positions of Paris and boost Russia’s influence in the region, developing pressure on the French market for raw materials import.
Russia is probably considering the Syrian scenario of consolidation in Mali. Moscow has repeatedly offered the Mali government to send its military to fight terrorist groups in the Sahel region. The last proposal is dated June 2019, when Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu voiced a corresponding proposal to Mali Defense Minister Ibrahim Dahir Dembele.
Alleged future Russian mil op in Mali could trigger arm-trading cooperation between Moscow and Bamako. Until now Russia has not been involved in any major arms deals with Mali, except for the 2016 deal when Mali signed a contract with Russia for an estimated four Mi-35M combat helicopters.
Two of them were delivered to Bamako on September 21st, 2017. They got registration codes TZ-13H and TZ-14H).
One of the coup-participants (Ismael Wague), like the interim president N’Daou, represent the Air Force, and the latter obviously could have participated in drafting a deal to purchase Russian helicopters.
According to Russian officials, the deal was a step towards further cooperation between the two countries. Prospects of Russian involvement in counter-terrorist ops will allow Moscow to increase weapon deliveries to Malian government and push-out Western suppliers from the regional market.Thus, Russia’s intervention amid the Malian political crisis is obvious. And it is of destabilizing nature.
