Moscow appoints Surovikin: an echo of chaos in Russian military rule

Massive missile strike by Russia on civilian targets and energy facilities in Ukraine indicates worsening outlook for the Russian troops in Ukraine. The Russians change tactics, as they believe that disabled energy system would break the resistance of Ukrainians, trigger panic, and roil the country from inside.

With more pressure on Ukrainian energy system, the Kremlin ultimately harms Europe, as it can no longer import electricity from Ukraine amid Russian gas blackmail.

Russia has made a bet on terror, as it failed military invasion and lost Ukrainian regions that it had conquered before, hoping that people would make the government underwrite the peace on the Kremlin’s terms. We see the Russians start using the same tactics in Ukraine they used in Syria: massive strikes against civilian facilities and civilians.

This was obviously one of the reasons to choose the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. Following Alexander Dvornikov’s resignation, who commanded Russian troops in Syria for almost a year, until 2016, and was nicknamed “Syrian butcher” for high number of civilian casualties, Sergei Surovikin took his place. Surovikin headed the Russian Aerospace Forces before that. He was born in Novosibirsk in 1966. With official biography claiming he served in Afghanistan, there are doubts he was there. He was a battalion commander in the Taman division.

He was in armored column during the 1991 coup in Moscow and not just ordered to shoot with service firearms, but he himself fired on students who were at the barricades. Three of them died. He was then promoted to major ahead of schedule, and by mistake of President Yeltsin.

Surovikin was put on probation for 1 year in 1995, for attempting to sell a weapon (pistol), as the article sanctioned a sentence of up to 10 years in jail. The FSB alone could advocate for that reduced sentence, as it has power to influence the court decisions in Russia. Aside from that, the military counterintelligence, as part of the FSB, maintained his criminal case. Surovikin was sent to serve in Tajikistan then, to the 201st division, not considered prestigious. That was like a punishment by the General Staff.

Surovikin was appointed deputy commander-chief of the division in 2000.

He graduated from the General Staff Academy two years later and was appointed the 34th division commander in Yekaterinburg. Hazing and violence boosted there at that time. 

Surovikin was simultaneously charged with murder or leading to suicide of his deputy Colonel Shtakal. He was also accused of beating Lieutenant Colonel Tsybmzov. By 2004, Surovikin’s division rated the worst since WWII.

Under Surovikin’s command, Senior Lieutenant Shpankov, Private Shmyrov and Private Lazarev died in his division under questionable circumstances, the last one was tortured.

Surovikin was appointed the 42nd division commander in Chechnya in 2004 but served there for only 8 months. His command of the 42nd division was related to his questionable order for a counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya that resulted in deaths of his soldiers and civilians. Surovikin was also responsible for the punitive operation against the Avar people in the village of Borozdinovskaya, Chechnya. 11 people went missing, 4 houses were burned, 80 people were unlawfully detained, and 1 civilian was killed, as a result.

Surovikin was sent to Syria in 2012. He organized the work of Russian military police there. The efforts by Surovikin in Syria were accompanied by high civilian losses, civilian facilities destroyed, as the UN and Human Rights Watch reported. Surovikin developed military operations to seize the Japanese regions of the Kuril Islands. The plan provided for the Japanese to lose positions in government, education, and business, and become cheap labor.

He commanded Russian troops in Syria from March to December 2017, and then from January to April 2019. Then he was appointed to command the Russian Aerospace Forces, despite being a military man.

Surovikin’s wife was named among the richest wives of Russian militaries from 2016. Her business is based on Argus Holding (40%) that is a logger in Yekaterinburg, tied to the family of Governor Misharin and the local police leaders.

Surovikin is an introvert with low empathy. He despises all who are not his relatives, or the people with lower social status. He has low sense of responsibility. Responsibility is replaced with a wish to carry favor with the bosses. For years as top commander, Surovikin has cultivated hypocrisy and the ability to mimiсry under current conditions. These skills rule out principles and a system of humanitarian values. He is ready to commit crimes, if necessary, with guarantees of immunity. That is why he was chosen to command the Russian operation in Ukraine. He performed Putin’s illegal orders to use chemical weapons in Syria with Russian planes and helicopters. That obviously played a role as well.

Surovikin lacks experience or ability to make a difference on the battlefield. President Putin, therefore, will likely continue to exercise effective command of the war in Ukraine personally. To do this, he needs a commander who will obey any order, including the one regarding war crimes. This situation signals chaos in the Russian military rule. That leads to losing a conventional war in Ukraine, on one hand, with increasing chance of Putin’s emotional decision to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, on the other.Moreover, Surovikin, tied to the FSB (probably recruited by it), was likely appointed to strengthen its influence on Russian Defense Ministry and the General Staff, amid struggle for power. Patrushev, therefore, might gain more control over the Russian troops in Ukraine and weaken Shoigu-Gerasimov’s hand in the Kremlin. We should expect more Russian provocations with staged shelling in Russia, and acts of terrorism in Ukraine, in this case. We should consider the explosion on the Crimean bridge from this perspective as well, as Russia could have organized it to create a casus belli and make Putin resort to radical decisions, such as tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.