Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

US Embassy attack in Baghdad was coordinated with the Iraqi and foreign government

The attack on the US Embassy in Iraq is indicative of Tehran's hybrid operation involving foreign fighters. On December 31, nearly 10 passenger jets from Iran and several scheduled flights from Beirut…

January 3, 2020Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Russia, USA

Conflict Estimates

The Kremlin uses the Syrian campaign to reduce terrorist threat in Russia

Having intention to reduce tensions in the Caucasus and other Muslim highly concentrated regions of Russia, the Russian security services facilitated radical Russian citizens’ departure for areas of terrorist activity.…

December 30, 2019DAESH, FSB, Russia, Syria

Conflict Situation Reports

Turkey mil op in Libya can lean on Tuareg tribal support but threatens relations with partners

Ankara demonstrates interests in overseas campaigns. This is very important sign of Turkish ambition and doninance in the MENA region. Ankara has sought to develop a policy of influence in the…

December 26, 2019GNA, Libya, Russia, Tuaregs, Turkey

Energy Situation Reports

Sweden and the Baltic countries may receive multi-billion compensation for Russian nuclear waste burial in the Baltic Sea

The bottom of the Baltic Sea may contain nuclear waste burial sites made by the Russian military in the early 1990s. This complements the picture of the dangerous chemical dumping…

December 23, 2019chemical weapon, Nord Stream-2, nuclear weapons, Russia, Sweden

Estimates Geopolitics

Deterioration in Cuba-Venezuela relations can trigger the fall of dictatorship regimes in Latin America

Cuban military and intelligence personnel help Nicolás Maduro stay in power and survive in social, economic, and humanitarian crisis. At the same time Venezuelan oil continues to provide much needed…

December 20, 2019Cuba, Venezuela

Estimates Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops

Russia lobbies for AfG’s rise to power and uses it for influence activities in Europe

Russia has vigorously started to use the agents in Germany from among local right-wing politicians, trying to orchestrate a conflict with Washington again. Russian influence agents in Germany have been…

December 19, 2019AfD, Germany, Russia

Estimates Intelligence ops

Russian military intelligence dominates German line of radio traffic with agents

Russian military intelligence has ramped up communications with agents in Germany in 2019. Such activity was observed only in 2011-2012, i.e., on the eve of the 2013 parliamentary elections, an…

December 16, 2019agents, Germany, GRU, Russia

Geopolitics Situation Reports

Failure to find a compromise on Renaissance Dam could lead to a violent confrontation in Africa

Ethiopia’s continued efforts to dam the Nile could end in war with Egypt. Ethiopia and Egypt are two of Africa’s most populous and powerful countries; any ongoing showdown between them…

December 12, 2019Egypt, Ethiopia, water

Intelligence ops Situation Reports

Cuba actively sabotaging Latin American democracies (audio)

Dirección de Inteligencia, the main state intelligence agency of Cuba has intensified the spy ring radio contacts. Such activization arisesamid the roil in Latin American countries. Consequently, the foreign link…

December 11, 2019Cuba, DGI

Estimates Geoeconomics

Impact of military conflicts on capital flows, GDP, debts, currency, consumer and trade indicators

The deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine after 2014 has raised a debate about the actual level of military conflict’s impact on the economy of the state. Despite numerous studies…

December 10, 2019economy, war

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