Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Togo elections may trigger unrest

The results of Togo elections may trigger unrest in the country. Further developments will depend both on the tactics of the opposition groups, which may resort to violent protest actions,…

February 24, 2020Togo

Conflict Estimates

Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence

The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur…

February 21, 2020Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU, NATO, Republica Srpska, Russia, Serbia

Intelligence ops Situation Reports

Russia has got access to MH-17 case investigation files and is trying to influence public opinion on the eve of the court hearing

As the trial date on MH17 case approaches, the activity of pro-Russian disinformation groups is going to increase. But no amount of disinformation can negate the fact that both the Netherlands…

February 20, 2020MH17, Netherlands, Russia, Ukraine

Estimates Intelligence ops

Naval updates threaten underwater comms systems with sabotage attack

Within last 3 years the Russian Navy deep-sea forces has been developed actively and rapidly and their operations significantly increased. Russia’s spy-ship Yantar (project 22010) is a carrier for mini-submarines…

February 19, 2020GRU, GUGI, intelligence, NAVY, Russia

Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops Situation Reports

Startling action art, Russian style

Defamation of Paris mayoral candidate Benjamin Griveaux, who was standing for the French President Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche! party, is a planned action to eliminate the French politician…

February 18, 2020Alexandra de Taddeo, Assange, France, Joachim Son-Forget, Pavlensky, Russia

Conflict Estimates

The future after Moldova’s reintegration

Moldova reverts to the plans for reintegration of Transnistria separatist republic developed in 2003. This initiative is obviously revived from the outside and does not come from the leadership of this…

February 14, 2020Moldova, Russia, Transnistria

Situation Reports Terrorism

Malian authorities set a dangerous precedent of making terrorists legitimized

Malian authorities set a dangerous precedent on holding talks with terrorist organizations. Thus, at least at the continental and sub-Saharan levels, Bamako legitimizes jihadists that eventually might turn terrorist groups’…

February 13, 2020Al Qaeda, ISIS, Mali

Democracy Situation Reports

The Salvadorian President has to save the image of a democrat and the legitimacy of his actions

El Salvador’s president’s endeavor to reduce a crime in the country amid downfall of relations with the parliament markedly affected by cartels and criminal organizations, spur him on to the…

February 12, 2020ARENA, FMLN, GANA, MS-13, Nayib Bukele, Salvador

Estimates Governance

PACE crisis raises risk of the EU collapse

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe is rapidly losing its effectiveness and is becoming a formal platform that imitates protection of democracy, human rights and the rule of…

February 11, 2020Council of Europe PA, EU

Governance Situation Reports

Ethnic conflict risks in Guinea are growing amid President Alpha Conde’s attempts to be re-elected for the third term

An on-going attempt to hold the constitutional referendum in Guinea may fuel tension among the ethnic groups in the country and cause confrontation in the country, externalities involved. Guinean President…

February 11, 2020Alpha Conde, Guinea

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