Criminal Networks as Instruments of Hybrid Warfare in Europe
Hybrid warfare refers to the blended use of military and non-military tactics by state or non-state actors to destabilize a target state below the threshold of open war. In Europe,…
Posted inDemocracy Governance Intelligence ops
Russian-Backed Election Destabilization in Moldova – Intelligence Brief
Parliamentary elections in Moldova are expected to be accompanied by a very high level of violence orchestrated by Russian intelligence, using mercenaries trained in Serbia. In light of this, we…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops
From Transcarpathia to the Kremlin: Budapest’s Quiet War
Hungary continues to conduct intelligence operations on Ukrainian territory, sharing information with Russia and preparing provocations in the Kremlin’s interest. On the morning of Sept. 26, Ukrainian Armed Forces radar…
The Kiriyenko Blueprint: Turning Moldova’s Election into an Operation
Elections on Sept. 28 will set Moldova’s course: a pro-European future or a return to Russia’s orbit. For years, Moscow has sought to bring Moldova to heel—through the buying of politicians,…
Posted inDemocracy Intelligence ops National Security
Ballots and Provocations: Moscow’s Election Gambit in Moldova
Less than a week before parliamentary elections, Moldovan authorities conducted 250 searches targeting more than 100 people amid suspicions that Russia is attempting to destabilize the country and sway the…
SVR’s Narrative on EU Interference in Serbia: Claims, Risks, and Reality”
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) continues to discredit itself by taking part in disinformation campaigns targeting foreign leaders. These operations are framed as part of Moscow’s effort to counter Western…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops National Security
Russia’s Hybrid Playbook in France: Extremist Convergence and Information Warfare
Russia is destabilizing French society, turning it against the government and seeking the overthrow of President Emmanuel Macron. This objective is driven by France’s role in Europe and Africa, where…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops
Russian Hybrid Operations and the Threat of Extremist Convergence in Germany
Russia appears to be returning to active subversive operations in Germany after a period of concentrating on influence campaigns and psychological operations. We are convinced that the Kremlin is seriously…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops Warfare
Russia–Finland: Prospects of Military Conflict
The existing indicators point to the Kremlin preparing subversive operations against Finland.” Although A deliberate, large-scale Russian conventional attack on Finland remains unlikely in 2025–27, given Russia’s force commitments and degraded conventional capacity.…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops
Russian Drone Incursion into Poland – Analytic Overview
Russia continues to probe NATO’s tolerance for boundary violations, acts of sabotage against defense and infrastructure facilities, interference in political processes, and the creation of transport-related threats, including attempts on…