Armenia Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Armenia’s Strategic Reorientation: Deepening Defense Ties with NATO After Karabakh

Suren Papikyan, Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia, and the NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Kevin Hamilton, held a meeting during which they discussed…

April 21, 2026Armenia, CSTO, NATO

Conflict Intelligence ops

Russia’s “Ukraine Playbook” in Armenia: Likelihood, Triggers, Actors, and Scenarios

A full-scale Russian invasion of Armenia “like Ukraine 2022” is less likely in the near term because Armenia is geographically constrained, is not Russia’s immediate borderland in the same way Ukraine is, and would risk…

January 21, 2026Armenia, Baltic, Moldova, Russia

Governance Intelligence ops

Why Armenia Is Creating a Foreign Counterintelligence Service: Aims, Drivers, and Consequences

Strategic Context: The Collapse of the Russian Security Umbrella Armenia’s decision to build a dedicated foreign counterintelligence (CI) capability reflects a radical shift in Yerevan’s security doctrine.Three structural changes underpin the move:…

November 26, 2025Armenia

Conflict Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Russia’s Pressure on Armenia After the Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Breakthrough and Naryshkin’s Yerevan Overtures

Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed a U.S.-brokered peace deal on August 8, 2025, with Washington and Brussels framing it as a milestone that still requires formal signing and ratification. Moscow reads this as a…

August 21, 2025Armenia, Azerbaijan, Naryshkin, Russia, SVR, USA

Geopolitics

The Waning Grip: The Decline of Russia’s Foreign Policy in the Global South

Introduction Russia has long positioned itself as an alternative power to the West in the Global South, portraying its diplomacy as non-imperialist and focused on sovereignty, military cooperation, and anti-Western…

July 16, 2025Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkiye

Coup Intelligence ops

Coup Attempt in Armenia — Kremlin Shadows, Domestic Fractures, and Future Risks for Pashinyan

Executive Summary The recent coup attempt in Armenia marks the most serious threat to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s authority since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. This event reveals a volatile intersection…

June 25, 2025Armenia, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics

Russia Unwilling to Defend Iran’s Interests Despite Strategic Use

In the South Caucasus, a clash of interests involving Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan continues, with Russia aligning itself with Ankara and Baku at the expense of Tehran’s goals. Turkey and…

September 6, 2024Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkiye

Governance

Armenia Expands Powers of Foreign Intelligence Service to Counteract Russian Subversive Activities

Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) is expanding its authority, potentially undermining the position of the National Security Service (NSS). A new draft law introduced by the FIS proposes granting the…

August 29, 2024Armenia

Coup Intelligence ops

Russia will compensate for damage from inaction in Karabakh by toppling Pashinyan in Armenia within next three days

The developments in Karabakh will lead to the overthrow of the Pashinyan government in Armenia and the establishment of a pro-Moscow regime in Armenia. According to our data, Russia was…

September 22, 2023Armenia, China, Georgia, Karabakh, Kazakhstan, Russia

Conflict

Efforts to de-escalate through dialog have failed due to Yerevan’s denial of responsibility

Baku has been preparing for a counterterrorism operation for several weeks in response to Armenia's persistent use of various types of weapons to attack borders, shelling local security forces and…

September 19, 2023Armenia, Azerbaijan, Karabakh, Russia

Armenia