Russia will exploit Crocus mass shooting for large-scale psyop
Russia intends to use the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall to launch a psyop and a disinformation campaign targeting Ukraine and the United States. On March 22, the Crocus…
Posted inEstimates National Security Terrorism
Intelligence failure: HAMAS had prepared for war and was waiting for the right opportunity, which came on October 7.
Since October 7, 2024, when Israel was caught off guard by a sudden and highly damaging attack from Hamas, more information has surfaced regarding why there was no prior warning…
Posted inConflict Geopolitics Terrorism
DR Congo’s Conflict: Rwanda’s motives to support the M23 rebels
For a long time Kinshasa has accused neighboring Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels that have been engaged in intense fighting with the Congolese army in eastern DR Congo. The United…
Posted inTerrorism
Afghanistan’s security landscape altered under the Taliban
The Al-Qaeda appears to be reorganising in Afghanistan with the support of the Taliban. The country’s internal security situation has drastically deteriorated since the founding of the Islamic Emirate. The Taliban…
Posted inConflict Geopolitics Terrorism
Iranian IRGC deployed in Yemen to support Houthis
Commanders and advisors from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the…
Posted inConflict Geopolitics Terrorism
Rwanda-Burundi tensions threaten regional stability
Border tensions disrupting EAC integration. However, we do not see significant risks of military conflict between two countries yet. Burundi's closure of its border with Rwanda follows Burundi's President Evariste…
Posted inNational Security Nonproliferation Terrorism
Hamas attack on Israel reveals shady arms shipments to terrorists
Although we have not found direct evidence proving Moscow’s involvement in supplying the Hamas movement with North Korean weapons, there is a very high probability of such copartnership. Particularly, collaboration of the…
Posted inIntelligence ops Terrorism
Hamas assault on Israel suggests external support, planning
Moscow and Tehran most likely took a direct part in organizing, approving, and politically supporting the Hamas operation against Israel. On October 7, the day Vladimir Putin's celebrates his birthday,…
Posted inIntelligence ops Terrorism
Mock far-left sabotage to threaten Europe
February 2023 forecast by RLI on terrorist threat for strategic targets in Europe by far-left forces affiliated with Russian intelligence is confirmed. Read also: Moscow expanding subversive influence operations across…
Posted inTerrorism
Tehran likely open for more interaction with Al Qaeda
Iran may have stepped up effort to use Al Qaeda terrorist cells, as this jihadist group changed its leaders. Following the death of Al Qaeda leader Al-Zawahiri, Seif al-Adel, a…