Belarus Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Increased Libya → Belarus Flights: Analysis of Causes, Actors, Timing, and Risks

Since early–mid 2025 authorities and analysts have flagged an unexpected rise in air traffic linking eastern Libya (notably Benghazi) and Minsk. European institutions are alarmed because the pattern resembles earlier…

August 12, 2025Belarus, Libya, Russia

Geopolitics Governance Warfare

Belarus’ New Defense Law Proposal: Strategic Alignment with Russia or Prelude to Escalation?

In August 2025, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament received a draft law from the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus titled "On Amendments to Laws on Ensuring…

August 6, 2025Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

UAV Incident in Minsk: A Russian Provocation to Draw Belarus into the War?

On July 29th , an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was downed by Belarusian EW in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. While official sources have remained vague or contradictory, the circumstances surrounding…

July 30, 2025Belarus, Russia

Governance

Why Lukashenko Freed Tsikhanouski Now: Reasons, Consequences & Russian Involvement

I. WHO IS TSIKHANOUSKI, REALLY? Nominally: A popular blogger and political prisoner, husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. In reality: He is widely believed to have been cultivated by Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus,…

June 24, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security Nonproliferation

Assessing the Likelihood of a Repeat Deployment of the “Oreshnik” ICBM

Russia's deployment of the "Oreshnik" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in Belarus is poised to heighten political and informational tensions across Europe. For Lukashenko, this marks a raising of the stakes…

December 10, 2024Belarus, nuclear weapons, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

High Probability of Power Transition Preparations in Belarus

There are growing indicators that Alexander Lukashenko is preparing for a power transition in Belarus. It appears likely that he is aiming for a controlled and self-managed transfer of power,…

August 21, 2024Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Conflict National Security

Signs of Russian provocation being prepared in Belarus to drag Minsk into war

Since February 2022, Russia has suffered heavy military losses while failing to achieve any of its initial goals for the invasion of Ukraine. An attempt to advance on the battlefield…

April 2, 2024Belarus, Lukashenko, Russia, USA

Intelligence ops migration National Security

NATO is challenged: Russia starts hybrid operations on the Finnish border

Russia attempts to intensify tension on the borders with NATO by using illegal migrants sent from the regions of Africa and Asia, whom Moscow intends to prepare to cross the…

November 21, 2023Belarus, Finland, Patrushev, Russia

Conflict migration

Wagner Group’s Belarus deployment unlikely connected with Prigozhin’s mutiny attempt

The build-up of Wagner Group’s presence on Belarusian soil allows predicting possible scenarios for their use. We are convinced that the deployment of these units in Belarus is not due…

August 3, 2023Belarus, Russia, Wagner Group

Corruption Governance

Zimbabwe’s escalation risks ahead of elections linked with Mnangagwa regime’s shady deals

Zimbabwe could be hit by a wave of violence ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August 23, 2023. The upcoming round of destabilization may be related to…

July 7, 2023Belarus, gold, lithium, platinum, Russia, Wagner Group, Zimbabwe

Belarus