Belarus Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Why Lukashenko Freed Tsikhanouski Now: Reasons, Consequences & Russian Involvement

I. WHO IS TSIKHANOUSKI, REALLY? Nominally: A popular blogger and political prisoner, husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. In reality: He is widely believed to have been cultivated by Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus,…

June 24, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security Nonproliferation

Assessing the Likelihood of a Repeat Deployment of the “Oreshnik” ICBM

Russia's deployment of the "Oreshnik" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in Belarus is poised to heighten political and informational tensions across Europe. For Lukashenko, this marks a raising of the stakes…

December 10, 2024Belarus, nuclear weapons, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

High Probability of Power Transition Preparations in Belarus

There are growing indicators that Alexander Lukashenko is preparing for a power transition in Belarus. It appears likely that he is aiming for a controlled and self-managed transfer of power,…

August 21, 2024Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Conflict National Security

Signs of Russian provocation being prepared in Belarus to drag Minsk into war

Since February 2022, Russia has suffered heavy military losses while failing to achieve any of its initial goals for the invasion of Ukraine. An attempt to advance on the battlefield…

April 2, 2024Belarus, Lukashenko, Russia, USA

Intelligence ops migration National Security

NATO is challenged: Russia starts hybrid operations on the Finnish border

Russia attempts to intensify tension on the borders with NATO by using illegal migrants sent from the regions of Africa and Asia, whom Moscow intends to prepare to cross the…

November 21, 2023Belarus, Finland, Patrushev, Russia

Conflict migration

Wagner Group’s Belarus deployment unlikely connected with Prigozhin’s mutiny attempt

The build-up of Wagner Group’s presence on Belarusian soil allows predicting possible scenarios for their use. We are convinced that the deployment of these units in Belarus is not due…

August 3, 2023Belarus, Russia, Wagner Group

Corruption Governance

Zimbabwe’s escalation risks ahead of elections linked with Mnangagwa regime’s shady deals

Zimbabwe could be hit by a wave of violence ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August 23, 2023. The upcoming round of destabilization may be related to…

July 7, 2023Belarus, gold, lithium, platinum, Russia, Wagner Group, Zimbabwe

Democracy Intelligence ops

Sapega-Protasevich operation wrap-up points to errors in assessing opposition potential in Russia and Belarus

The pardon of Sofia Sapega in Belarus with her subsequent handover to the Russian delegation headed by the Primorye Territory governor suggests the completion of the joint special operation by…

June 7, 2023Belarus, GRU, Russia

Governance Intelligence ops

Risks growing around Belarus amid Russia’s battlefield failures

Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko's health condition may push the Kremlin toward some radical decisions regarding this country. They will thwart a negative scenario for Moscow where the regime in Minsk changes…

May 13, 2023Belarus, Lukashenko

Coup Intelligence ops

Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army

According to sources within the Russian military leadership, the Kremlin has made a decision on a radical “solution” to the issue of dragging Belarus into Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. On…

November 25, 2022Belarus, Russia

Belarus