Belarus Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

The Lukashenko Regime Has Resumed the Flow of Irregular Migrants to Destabilize Security on the EU’s Eastern Border

Belarus has continued to systematically direct migrants toward the Latvian border. According to the Latvian Border Guard, following a relatively calm winter, a steady flow of irregular migrants resumed in…

May 1, 2026Belarus, Russia

Governance Warfare

Covert Mobilization in Belarus: Strategic Logic Behind the Reserve Call-Up

According to Decree No. 132 issued by Alexander Lukashenko on April 17, 2026, the formal call-up of reserve officers in Belarus should be interpreted in a broader strategic context that extends beyond routine staff…

April 20, 2026Belarus, Ukraine

Geopolitics

Axis of Sanctions Evasion: Belarus and North Korea Strengthen Russia’s Hand

The dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, paid his first official visit to North Korea, where he met with Kim Jong Un to “develop cooperation” between the two countries. Evidently, Moscow is strengthening its ties…

March 26, 2026Belarus, DPRK, Russia

Geoeconomics

From Parliament to Parallel Trade: The AfD, Belarus, and the Mechanics of Sanctions Evasion

AfD lawmaker from Saxony Jörg Dornau, who is suspected of violating the ban on exporting goods to Belarus, was summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted at all properties he owns.…

February 5, 2026AfD, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Sanctions

migration Warfare

Indicator of Escalation: Belarus Tests EU Defenses With Coordinated Hybrid Actions

On 2 November 2025, information was published that in October Lithuania recorded the highest number in the past six months of attempted illegal crossings from Belarusian territory—275. Nearly half of…

November 3, 2025Belarus, EU, Russia

Geopolitics National Security

Trump and Lukashenko: Tactical Diplomacy, Strategic Risks

President Trump sent a personal letter to Lukashenko via a special envoy; Washington eased sanctions on Belavia after Minsk released 52 political prisoners; and—for the first time since 2022—U.S. officers…

September 16, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Intelligence ops migration National Security Psyops

Increased Libya → Belarus Flights: Analysis of Causes, Actors, Timing, and Risks

Since early–mid 2025 authorities and analysts have flagged an unexpected rise in air traffic linking eastern Libya (notably Benghazi) and Minsk. European institutions are alarmed because the pattern resembles earlier…

August 12, 2025Belarus, Libya, Russia

Geopolitics Governance Warfare

Belarus’ New Defense Law Proposal: Strategic Alignment with Russia or Prelude to Escalation?

In August 2025, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament received a draft law from the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus titled "On Amendments to Laws on Ensuring…

August 6, 2025Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

UAV Incident in Minsk: A Russian Provocation to Draw Belarus into the War?

On July 29th , an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was downed by Belarusian EW in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. While official sources have remained vague or contradictory, the circumstances surrounding…

July 30, 2025Belarus, Russia

Governance

Why Lukashenko Freed Tsikhanouski Now: Reasons, Consequences & Russian Involvement

I. WHO IS TSIKHANOUSKI, REALLY? Nominally: A popular blogger and political prisoner, husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. In reality: He is widely believed to have been cultivated by Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus,…

June 24, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Belarus