Belarus Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

The Smetanin Network: Russian and Belarusian Logistics Influence Inside the EU

Poland hosts a network of logistics companies that are effectively controlled by Russian and Belarusian owners who continue to circumvent European Union sanctions imposed on Russia. The central figure in…

June 18, 2026Belarus, Poland, Russia

Geopolitics

The Murder of Semyon Skrepetsky in Poland: A Russian Signal to Lukashenko and an Attempt to Prevent Belarus’s Westward Maneuver

The murder of Russian opposition artist Semyon Skrepetsky in the Polish city of Biała Podlaska, near the Belarusian border, should be viewed not merely as a criminal act but also as…

June 16, 2026Belarus, Lukashenko, Russia

Economy Geoeconomics Geopolitics National Security

The Potash Trap for Washington: How Minsk and Moscow Are Seeking to Leverage U.S. Interest in the Nezhinsky Potash Project to Undermine the Sanctions Regime

In December 2025 and again in March 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) eased certain restrictions affecting Belarus's potash sector and selected financial institutions. Reuters…

June 8, 2026Belarus, Russia, Sanctions, USA

Geopolitics Nonproliferation Warfare

Russia’s Nuclear Shadow over Europe: Belarus as the Kremlin’s Forward Nuclear Platform

Russia, as part of large-scale three-day exercises on the preparation and potential use of nuclear weapons (May 19–21), delivered nuclear munitions to field storage sites on the territory of Belarus.…

May 22, 2026Belarus, nuclear weapons, Russia

Intelligence ops migration Terrorism

The Lukashenko Regime Has Resumed the Flow of Irregular Migrants to Destabilize Security on the EU’s Eastern Border

Belarus has continued to systematically direct migrants toward the Latvian border. According to the Latvian Border Guard, following a relatively calm winter, a steady flow of irregular migrants resumed in…

May 1, 2026Belarus, Russia

Governance Warfare

Covert Mobilization in Belarus: Strategic Logic Behind the Reserve Call-Up

According to Decree No. 132 issued by Alexander Lukashenko on April 17, 2026, the formal call-up of reserve officers in Belarus should be interpreted in a broader strategic context that extends beyond routine staff…

April 20, 2026Belarus, Ukraine

Geopolitics

Axis of Sanctions Evasion: Belarus and North Korea Strengthen Russia’s Hand

The dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, paid his first official visit to North Korea, where he met with Kim Jong Un to “develop cooperation” between the two countries. Evidently, Moscow is strengthening its ties…

March 26, 2026Belarus, DPRK, Russia

Geoeconomics

From Parliament to Parallel Trade: The AfD, Belarus, and the Mechanics of Sanctions Evasion

AfD lawmaker from Saxony Jörg Dornau, who is suspected of violating the ban on exporting goods to Belarus, was summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted at all properties he owns.…

February 5, 2026AfD, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Sanctions

migration Warfare

Indicator of Escalation: Belarus Tests EU Defenses With Coordinated Hybrid Actions

On 2 November 2025, information was published that in October Lithuania recorded the highest number in the past six months of attempted illegal crossings from Belarusian territory—275. Nearly half of…

November 3, 2025Belarus, EU, Russia

Geopolitics National Security

Trump and Lukashenko: Tactical Diplomacy, Strategic Risks

President Trump sent a personal letter to Lukashenko via a special envoy; Washington eased sanctions on Belavia after Minsk released 52 political prisoners; and—for the first time since 2022—U.S. officers…

September 16, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Belarus