Posted inGeopolitics
Chad heads towards Russia’s protectorate
Chad is likely to become the next African nation where Russia is going to replace the Western footprint. This perspective goes in line with the Kremlin’s pattern of ousting Paris…
Posted inDemocracy War crimes
The worsening insurgency and insecurity in Mali
One of the major reasons the junta in Bamako gave for taking power from civilian rulers was the worsening insurgency and insecurity in Mali. According to them, and other coup makers…
The Crocus City Hall attack: the suspects’ tortures signals about the Kremlin’s weakness and revenge for the special services’ failure
The way Russian law enforcement officers treat the alleged suspects of the deadly terrorist attack at the Moscow Crocus City Hall indicates that Russian chauvinism and nationalism have made abusing Muslims as…
Posted inDemocracy Governance
Comoros protests are likely to shrink
Comoros opposition is unlikely to reach presidential reelection through street clashing, as army will quell protests. The risks of an armed uprising are extremely low. Assoumani could be supported by…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops
Moscow concerned about losing colonial influence in the CAR, plans to intensify more on the continent
Russian government is quite concerned about the risks of losing its influence in the Central African Republic and access to its natural resources. Since 2014, in response to Western sanctions…
Posted inConflict Propaganda and Disinformation Warfare
Russian PsyOp proves the Kremlin’s involvement in the operation agaist Israel
The forecasting about Russia’s misinformation campaign aimed at diverting attention to another 'unsuitable' target in matters of supplying weapons to Hamas militants for attacking Israel was confirmed. On October 7,…
Posted inCoup
Ghana’s gold increases risks for Russian-backed coup
A military coup in Ghana is highly probable, with Wagner mercenary groups operating in the region. Moreover, these groups are now fully and officially controlled by Russia’s Defense Ministry, so…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops
Russia facing changes following Prigozhin’s plane crash
The likely liquidation of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will likely lead to tectonic shifts in Russia’s political system. On August 23, a business jet belonging to Mr Prigozhin was…
Wagner Group’s Belarus deployment unlikely connected with Prigozhin’s mutiny attempt
The build-up of Wagner Group’s presence on Belarusian soil allows predicting possible scenarios for their use. We are convinced that the deployment of these units in Belarus is not due…
Posted inCoup Intelligence ops
Niger coup: Russia likely behind
The coup in Niger that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum has signs that Russia is most probably involved. First of all, Wagner mercenaries made attempts to gain influence in Niger starting from 2021, as they launched disinformation campaigns to…