France Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Strategic Convergence: Mélenchon, NATO Skepticism, and Russia’s European Calculus”

The leader of the far-left party La France Insoumise (Unbowed France), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has publicly announced his intention to run in the 2027 French presidential election, which would mark his fourth attempt to…

May 5, 2026France

Conflict Nonproliferation

Deterrence in Transition: Russia Confronts the Prospect of a European Nuclear Pillar”

Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva, stated that Moscow has prepared “adequate response measures” in the event that France increases the scale of its nuclear arsenal or…

April 29, 2026France, NATO, Russia

Geopolitics Propaganda and Disinformation

“Frexit for Energy? How Calls to Lift Russia Sanctions Threaten Europe’s Security”

Calls within France to suspend sanctions on Russian oil and gas reflect a broader and more dangerous trend: the gradual politicization and potential fragmentation of the Western sanctions regime. While framed…

March 30, 2026France, Phillippot, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics

Manufactured Enemies: The Strategic Logic Behind Niger’s War Talk with France”

A member of Niger's ruling junta has urged his country's citizens to prepare for "war" with France, as relations with the former colonial power hit new lows. Why Now: Strategic…

February 13, 2026France, Niger, Russia

Geoeconomics Geopolitics Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Frexit Without Exit: How Anti-EU Movements Shape French Politics Without Winning Power

A march by supporters of France’s withdrawal from the European Union (“Frexit”) took place in central Paris. On February 2, 2026, more than a thousand people gathered in the French…

February 4, 2026EU, France, Russia

Geopolitics Governance National Security

France’s “Exit from NATO” Debate (2026): Political Signal or Strategic Break?

In January 2026, parts of the French opposition reignited a familiar theme in French strategic culture: “strategic autonomy” and skepticism toward NATO as a US-led security architecture. The immediate catalyst has been…

January 13, 2026France, NATO

Governance Intelligence ops National Security

Russia’s Hybrid Playbook in France: Extremist Convergence and Information Warfare

Russia is destabilizing French society, turning it against the government and seeking the overthrow of President Emmanuel Macron. This objective is driven by France’s role in Europe and Africa, where…

September 15, 2025France

Estimates Geopolitics

Why France Is Withdrawing Military Forces from Senegal

France’s decision to withdraw its military forces from Senegal in 2024–2025 marks a major shift in its Africa strategy. This move is driven by a combination of regional, political, and strategic factors, reflecting…

July 17, 2025France, Senegal

Geopolitics Governance

Prospects of New Caledonian Statehood: Analysis and Strategic Implications

1. Probability of New Caledonia Gaining Statehood Medium-High Probability (50–65%) in the medium term (5–10 years). After the violent unrest in May–June 2024, the long-standing Kanak independence movement regained momentum, especially among younger, marginalized…

July 14, 2025France, New Caledonia

Coup Democracy Governance profile

Ibrahim Traoré, Russian Influence, and U.S. Policy Challenges

Ibrahim Traoré, the current leader of Burkina Faso, is a military officer who took power through a coup in 2022. Here is an analysis based on his public actions, speeches,…

February 25, 2025Burkina Faso, France, Russia, USA, Wagner Group

France