The constitutional amendments voiced by Vladimir Putin in his message to the Federal Assembly focus on preparing the multiscenario options in 2024. The Kremlin’s key task is to lay the groundwork for the current president to retain full power in Russia, depending on the domestic political and economic situation.
The Russian Federation has been monitoring the issue of amending its Constitution since 2013. Then 44% of supporters lent toward the changes. In 2018, – 66%, in 2019 – 68%. Taking into account the steady growth of the request for the constitutional amendments, the President’s initiative is likely to be focused on playing with public opinion and imitating changes to reduce negative moods in Russian society.
The changes proposed for the political system restore the governance model of Soviet Russia to some extent. The State Council under the President, comprising the heads of the subordinate entities of the Federation, members of the government, speakers of the State Duma and the Federation Council, presidential envoys to federal districts, is the Soviet political bureau’s analogue.
Putin is unlikely to groom a successor to the head of Russia’s post. The amendments provide for a certain reduction of the presidential powers in the personnel sphere. For example, the President will lose the opportunity to reject ministers approved by parliament, as well as appoint ministers. This function will go to the lower house of parliament. However, the president will retain basic powers – to remove the ministers, to keep direct control over the army and the law enforcement system. All heads of law enforcement agencies will be approved in consultation with the Federation Council. However, this initiative most likely imitates the implementation of democratic elements of governance in the constitution. The nomination of candidates will remain with the President, and the controlled nature of the elections in Russia ensures the coordination of candidates with the Federation Council, just the same way the Prime Minister’s candidacy is now easily agreed with the parliament.
The amended Constitution proposes to limit the presidential powers to two terms. To do this, the word “consecutive” will be removed from the text, thus making the temporary transfer of power scheme impossible, as it was in 2008 when the presidential powers were delegated to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. However, amendments to the Constitution make it possible to start counting the presidential term from the date such amendments are adopted, i.e. to give Putin another 12 years of power. Such scheme has been repeatedly used in authoritarian countries, including those in the post-Soviet area. That made it possible to formally comply with the requirements of national constitutional restrictions as for the number of elections.
An attempt to tighten the qualifications for the presidential candidate is not significant but allows to cut off the candidates representing opposition and those who questioned their loyalty during Putin’s reign, even while registering at the Central Election Commission. This will make elections uncontested as the list of post seekers will be corrected artificially.
The Federation Council will be empowered to influence over the Constitutional Court judges, depriving them of their posts on presidential proposal. This need for presidential proposal indirectly indicates that V. Putin will stay on as the president.Constitutional amendments require to adopt the additional laws, for example, the law on the State Council and its powers. Thus, Putin is equipped to quickly create a body that he will be able to take over if he decides to resign. However, as of today, there are no signs of such intentions in Putin’s behavior. Thus, the amendments to the Constitution of Russia were most likely initiated as an attempt to de-escalate tensions in Russian society, to demonstrate formal changes, a course towards fictitious democratization of society. Putin emphasized that Russia should develop as a presidential republic in his message. This confirms that the presidential powers will not be significantly reduced. Consequently, it is possible for V. Putin to preserve the current powers only as the president of Russia, which means that the power transit in Russia will not happen, and the Kremlin is guided by the Soviet model of General Secretaries’ succession, who retained their posts until the end of their lives.
