Estimates Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Crimea in the Dark: What the Peninsula-Wide Blackout Reveals About Russia’s Military Resilience and Occupation Governance

Following a large-scale drone attack, the Crimean Peninsula was left completely without electricity. The peninsula-wide blackout was officially confirmed by the hotline of Krymenergo, the regional electricity provider. Company representatives…

July 7, 2026Russia, Ukraine

Conflict Estimates Warfare

Renewed threats to Kosovo and stability in the Western Balkans

Serbia`s rapid military modernization, strategic planning, and hybrid operations are emerging as the central security threat to Kosovo and regional stability in the Western Balkans. Between increased defense spending, the…

March 16, 2026Kosovo, Serbia

Conflict Estimates Warfare

Strengthening Iran’s Air Defenses: Strategic Implications of a Secret Russia–Iran Arms Contract

A secret contract between Russia and Iran strengthens Tehran’s air defenses and threatens U.S. influence in the Middle East. A secret agreement has been concluded between Iran and Russia. Under…

February 24, 2026Iran, Israel, Russia, USA

Estimates Geopolitics Governance

Trump’s Policies and Politics of Permanent Crisis

Coercion, Credibility, and a Strategic Disconnect in U.S. Foreign Policy The Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy posture toward Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and Denmark reflects a governing logic built around coercion as policy,…

January 19, 2026Cuba, Greenland, Iran, Mexico, USA

Conflict Estimates National Security Warfare

Russian Air-Defense Deliveries to Venezuela and the Escalation Risk of U.S.–Venezuela Military Conflict

Russian deployment of new air-defense systems to Venezuela—including Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E batteries to reinforce the existing S-300VM (Antey-2500)—has altered the regional security calculus. The systems strengthen Caracas’ deterrence posture yet simultaneously raise miscalculation risks with the United States, which…

November 5, 2025USA, Venezuela

Estimates Geopolitics

Russia, Iran, Israel: Assessing Mohammad Sadr’s Claim that Moscow Shared Iranian Air-Defense Secrets with Israel

On Aug 24–25, 2025, Iranian statesman Seyyed Mohammad Sadr (member, Expediency Discernment Council) publicly alleged that Russia provided Israel with intelligence on the locations of Iran’s air-defense sites during the June 13–24, 2025 Iran–Israel war. No independent…

August 27, 2025Iran, Israel, Russia

Estimates Governance

Prospects and Risks of a Third Term for Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa

Following his controversial 2023 re-election, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's allies in ZANU-PF have begun publicly floating the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. The political climate…

July 23, 2025Zimbabwe

Estimates Geopolitics

Why France Is Withdrawing Military Forces from Senegal

France’s decision to withdraw its military forces from Senegal in 2024–2025 marks a major shift in its Africa strategy. This move is driven by a combination of regional, political, and strategic factors, reflecting…

July 17, 2025France, Senegal

Conflict Democracy Estimates Governance

Chad on the Edge: Rising Tensions and Their Implications for Regional Stability and Peacekeeping

In the aftermath of contested presidential elections in May 2024 and amid unresolved internal divisions, Chad is facing mounting political and security tensions. The recent consolidation of power by President Mahamat…

June 16, 2025Chad

Conflict Estimates Geopolitics

Rising Tensions Between Thailand and Cambodia: Causes, Scenarios, Consequences, and Foreign Interests

Southeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape is once again being tested as Thailand and Cambodia, two neighboring ASEAN members, find themselves embroiled in increasing bilateral tensions. Rooted in historical grievances, territorial disputes,…

June 9, 2025Cambodia, Thailand

Estimates