The situation development in Belarus following the presidential elections makes a scenario of the Kremlin’s growing influence on official Minsk quite real.
Since the mid-2000s the federal media have called Vladimir Putin’s politics as ‘collecting Russian lands’. However, after the forceful annexation of Crimea and Donbass invasion in Ukraine and international sanctions imposed Russia has apparently changed the territorial expansion scenarios.
Today it is getting clear that Moscow bets on hybrid political influence mechanisms. In particular, in foreign states it will bring to power the Kremlin-controlled political forces that will join Russia’s integration projects under guise of their own policy. Force operations are exclusively considered in the context of provoking certain events rather than a method to achieve the final goal. Such tactics changes can be explained by the Kremlin’s unwillingness to be sanctioned by the West, its desire to resume relations without abandoning expansionism policy, and expanding political influence throughout Europe.
The current political situation in Belarus fosters the mentioned scenario. Neither local opposition forces nor the population itself gets prepared for the power struggle with Lukashenko. Thus, protest actions will be limited by the national strike. It strengthens Lukashenko’s position since he is the only one who keeps a use force monopoly that means that he will be able to impose any scenario on the opposition. The West is politically and economically limited to influence on Lukashenko. The Kremlin and Lukashenko’s entourage in the army and the KGB are trying to intimidate him with the NATO countries’ invasion. Despite Belarus invasion by the West sounds as an absurd idea, Lukashenko’s statements clearly show that he admits such a possibility. This is the result of coercion. We can say with a high degree of probability that Lukashenko is being convinced of the West hostility and, thereby, pushed towards further rapprochement with Moscow.
Lukashenko’s appearance at one of Minsk residences, the Palace of Independence, holding a gun in his hands proves his high anxiety and inner uncertainty. In such a manner he intends to demonstrate decisiveness in retaining power by using the image of Chilean President Salvador Allende who is still in memory of the age electoral group, Lukashenko’s targeted audience.
On our estimates, Lukashenko is afraid of losing control over the security forces. The video where he thanks the police and calls them as ‘good guys’ proves it. On one hand, this is a vivid sign of flirting and appreciating security personnel for their loyalty. On the other hand, it is a poorly hidden demonstration of dependence and an attempt to share responsibility with the security forces.
Probably, uncertainty in his entourage’s loyalty that will increase under the Kremlin’s influence will make Lukashenko call for Russia’s help giving him security guarantees. As a result, Moscow will force Lukashenko to integrate deeper that, in turn, will threaten NATO’s eastern borders because of the militarization of the region.
Recommendations.
What is needed now is tough actions. When Russia, not yet militarily, intervenes, but already intervenes in hybrid way. Structures of Belorussian state are being taken over by Russia like state TV, special forces, secret service operatives and military advisors.
This is lower cost for Russia than direct military intervention. We should act in order to put higher the costs for Russia. For further interference, one should punish and neutralize the interference. What is needed is heavy sanctions on Russia for this interference in Belarus. For example, excluding Russia from the SWIFT financial system. Best would be for EU and USA to act together. And quick. Because time counts.
