System Overload: Can China’s Military Be Distracted in a War over Taiwan? 2020

The paper by  Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University  assesses the PLA’s ability to navigate the dilemma of preparing for a war with Taiwan while fulfilling its obligations in other theaters and derives implications for U.S. strategy during peacetime and in the early phases of a conflict. It is organized into six main sections. The first two sections explain Taiwan’s role as the PLA’s primary planning target and competing considerations that require attention and resources in other theaters. The next section develops an analytic framework derived from the Russian and U.S. experiences during and after the Cold War.12 These cases suggest that the Chinese system needs to be able to maintain adequate capabilities within the five theater commands (TCs) to deter other rivals, quickly shift resources among theaters, and coordinate multitheater operations in exigent circumstances. These objectives have implications in five areas: force development, force distribution, command and control, logistics, and human capital.

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