Border change in Balkans: new politics with old means?

Border change in Balkans: new politics with old means?

A document recently published in the Slovenian media, which highlights the idea of changing the borders in the Balkans, has sparked much debate in Bosnia and Hercegovina and Kosovo but also the region. The document introduces a change of borders, with special emphasis on the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina with Serbia and Kosovo and Albania. The leaked document that is called in Slovenian a “non-paper” document, was published by the research medium from Slovenia, “Necenzurirano”, and is written in English. It contains some points that reflect on the future of the Balkans geopolitics on the borders through ethnic lines. 

This document, which is allegedly sent by the Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša to Brussels, presents the idea of the partition of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the annexation of Republika Srpska to Serbia and the unification of Kosovo with Albania. The document starts with the introduction giving an undocumented statistic that in Kosovo about 95% of the inhabitants are in favour of joining with Albania and about the same in Albania to join with Kosovo. The document also suggests that the border between Kosovo and Albania is “inexistent” despite the situation on the ground being fundamentally different.  Among other things, it is said that the Serb part of Kosovo will gain a special status, following the example of South Tyrol, an autonomous province in northern Italy, where the majority of the population speaks German language.

The document also estimates that after the break-up of Yugoslavia, the national issues of Serbs, Albanians and Croats remained unresolved, and that it is currently difficult to imagine the European perspective for Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo. With this document, the Slovenian government intends to fix the irregularities of the past. 

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Further the document shows how the partition of BH was proposed by uniting the Croatian cantons of Bosnia to Croatia, again taking the example of South Tyrol in Italy. While B&H’s EU membership can be completely ruled out, the document says, it also does not leaves aside the extent of Turkey’s influence in B&H and in Northern Macedonia.

The unknown author(s) of the document state that “The Serbian national question can be resolved mainly by annexing a part of Republika Srpska to Serbia. “In this way, Serbia would be ready to agree to the unification of Kosovo with Albania.” The document further states that Serbia, Croatia and Albania currently have stable governments and their elected politicians are capable of making strategic decisions. According to the document, these “solutions” would speed up the negotiations for the membership of the Western Balkan countries in the EU and NATO. The whole process of changing the Balkans borders, in this document is foreseen to be done in a silent procedure by the decision makers or political leaders of the countries involved. The author(s) also “forget” to mention that Kosovo scores best in the region in terms of freedom of expression and had democratically elected leadership for the last 20 years and these results were always certified by OSCE and the EU. 

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The issue of changing borders and unification with Albania is not news in Kosovar context. The idea has followed up with all major political movements ever since the Albanian National League in 1878, several years before Albania was an independent country. However, neither the Albanian state nor ethnic Albanian living in surrounding countries of Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia have ever tried to join into one monoethnic stateThe Kosovo Liberation Army has this as a political mobilization tool but soon abandoned it after the NATO intervention and deployment of the military forces in Kosovo. 

The issue of border swap is a different matter though. Seeing the lack of progress with EU mediation, President Thaci and Vucic bluffed with the idea of swap of territories in hope to accelerate progress but this was met with strong opponence especially in Kosovo. This idea has never made it on any paper or official position of neither Kosovo government nor Serbia. Now, after the appearance of the “non-paper” document in the media, there has been no reaction from the government yet.

The first reaction to the document came from the US Embassy in Ljubljana, “we remain committed to the common goal of a democratic, inclusive and prosperous Bosnia and Herzegovina towards Euro-Atlantic integration. We are convinced that the future of the Western Balkans lies in the EU,” the US Embassy in Ljubljana said in a statement.  On the other hand, the spokesman of the European Union Peter Stano did not want to comment on the content of this document, denying that the European Commission has received this document and it is not aware of the alleged content of such a document.

Meanwhile, Slovenian politician Tanja Fajon, former rapporteur on the visa liberalization process for the Western Balkans and head of the Social Democrat group in the European Parliament, has called for an urgent clarification of Slovenia’s position on the Western Balkans, especially on BiH, because, as stated, “regardless of whether such a document was created in Slovenia or not, the damage done to its state is already huge.” The cabinet of Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has not yet commented on the so-called “non-paper” on the Western Balkans.

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There is already a dilemma whether, after the “leak” of this informal document, there is a secret plan for the reconfiguration of the Western Balkans, or even if the EU is testing its outlook for the big changes that will happen in the next decade. Such a plan for changes in the Western Balkans, in addition to throwing into the water the last 30 years of efforts of the United States of America and the European Union itself for peace and stability in the Balkans, would also justify Milosevic in the grave, for the crimes committed by Serbia during the wars in the Western Balkans last 30 years.

Another dilemma is whether the European Union is pursuing policies based on the order of the presidency of the next Council of the European Union. It is known that Slovenia Prime Minister Janez Janša will lead the next 2021 Presidency of the Council of the European Union from 1 July 2021 to 31 December 2021, but remains known yet if this document was drafted to appear during the period of the presidency of the Council of the EU by Prime Minister Janša.

Janša, known in former Yugoslav sphere as Mareshal Tweeto after the late dictator of Yugoslavia, Mareshal Tito, also is known for his support for Orban and Trump. He led Slovenia in secession from Yugoslavia only to come back some three decades later in politics as populist and sliding towards the right wing and somewhat impersonation of Trump in the Balkans. Analysts in the Balkans warn that this document might have been written with Trump and his special envoy, Grenell in mind as audience. Janez Janša is also known as a conservative politician within the EU and who often has similar views to Russia.