Political turmoil in Belarus brought the Syrian emigration scenario to Lithuanian border. Despite the political unrest in Belarus, illegal migrants, eager to get across to Lithuania, mostly come from Asia and the Middle East.
A wave of migrants from Belarus to Lithuania has seen a sharp rise in recent months, as the number of those coming to Latvia is approaching zero, and migration inflow to Poland is much lower than that one to Lithuania.
The flows of illegal migrants are getting across to Minsk by four weekly commercial flights from Baghdad and Istanbul to Moscow. Estimates have it that the number of (illegal) migrants from Iraq and Syria might reach 200-300 persons per week. That way, one can observe a recurrence of the 2016-2018 migration crisis, used as a tool for hybrid war.
Read also: Migration as a Weapon, 2020
Though official Vilnius is considering possibility to deport illegal immigrants to their home countries, that will increase financial burden on Lithuania, and require an extra cost to step up technical efforts at the border. The volume of migration flow speaks for the fact that it is fully backed by Belarusian KGB, as the route, used by migrants to arrive in the country, reveals that the FSB of Russia is at least aware of the trend to form the migration channel.
On May 26, the self-declared Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in speech to the parliament said that from now on the West will independently control drug trafficking and illegal migration at Belarusian border. Thus, Belarus is delivering its threat, and the Kremlin, if not supervises, but furthers this process at least, and is likely to take part in forming migrant teams, sent to Europe through Lithuania.
Not paying attention to the risk Belarus might be absorbed by Russia, we may come against a situation where the latter finds its borders at the borders of Poland with emerged additional risks for NATO. The Kremlin actively pursues toxic takeover scenario. Russian intelligence keeps an eye on both the Belarusian government and most of Belarusian opposition. In this regard, we cannot rule out the possibility Moscow, at the key moment, might make an attempt to replace Lukashenko, who has lost his importance, with a guided opposition leader. This scenario is not acceptable either, as it has nothing to do with democratic future of Belarus and strengthens the Kremlin’s hand.
We believe there is still a possibility today to remove Lukashenko from the office without concerns Belarus will be absorbed by the Russians and without civilian casualties. Compulsory landing of Ryanair flight made top law enforcement and army officials understand that the Lukashenko regime was doomed and curtailed their movement and activity in Belarus, which is tantamount to house arrest, given it is absorbed by the Russians. The number of those who support the government in the police does not exceed 20% today. Most of the so-called siloviki are afraid of persecution following the regime fall.
They are unlike to keep their posts in power or get adequate posts in Russia if they make a try to seek safety in Russia, or if Belarus is absorbed. Thus, negotiations with the current security chiefs in Belarus might lead to Lukashenko’s internal isolation and peaceful power shift, end repressions and trigger extrajudicial executions in the country.
