Globally non-recognized Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has become a full-time puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin. To the loss of Belarus’ sovereignty testifies the fact that Minsk’s rhetoric and the general trends of its operations on foreign soil repeat Russia’s modus operandi over the recent years.
Stronger “coordination” that’s being observed between the Russian and Belarusian security and intelligence agencies puts Lukashenko in Putin’s tight grip, including in fighting Belarusian opposition in neighboring countries. In this way, the Kremlin is creating a point of no return for the Belarusian leadership, which is facing a prospect of becoming a prosecution target for international institutions. Thus, in order to avoid potential punishment, Lukashenko and his entourage must follow incoming instructions from Moscow, which he believes guarantees him Russian protection.
There are no longer independent agencies or institutions left in the Republic of Belarus. The Ministry of Defense and special services have long fallen under Kremlin control. Whatever Lukashenko voices in his public statements is purely retransmission of Putin’s narratives. This explains the rapid change in Lukashenko’s rhetoric towards Western powers and his harsh efforts against countries on the Belarus perimeter. The fact that Russians have infiltrated the army and law enforcement in Belarus is further increasing pressure on Lukashenko, who could, at any moment, be toppled by local security forces upon Moscow’s command.
Through the latest assassination in Kyiv (Ukraine) of Vitaly Shishov, a Belarusian opposition figure and dissident, Lukashenko has effectively confirmed the involvement of Belarusian security operatives in physical elimination beyond Belarus border of politicians, journalists, and activists causing the Minsk regime too much headache. The said case is similar to Russia’s operations to eliminate political opponents and regime-defiant figures, including the Berlin hit job that took the life of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.
The doctored migration crisis on the border with Lithuania copycats Russia’s effort to arrange a flow of Syrian refugees to the European Union. The only difference is that in Syria, conditions had been created to provoke a massive wave of illegal migrants by intensifying air strikes on residential areas combined with psyops aimed to direct the flows to specific EU member states via the already worked out routes. The analysis of the latest developments on the Belarus-Lithuania border doesn’t call into question the pro-active involvement of Russian military intelligence in compiling and delivering groups of illegal migrants, as well as supervising the entire operation.
The death of an Iraqi migrant on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border was exploited by the Belarusian regime as a pretext for shutting its borders and creating in the eyes of their citizens an image of NATO Allies as enemies. It is likely that this entire effort was aimed at preventing the return of illegal migrants to Belarus and stimulating their further transfer towards Western Europe, along with their radicalization.
Lukashenko’s order to close the country’s western and southern borders points to an attempt to turn a once independent country into a huge concentration camp for his own citizens. It is in this context that the recent construction across the country of large penitentiaries, unnervingly resembling actual concentration camps, must be perceived. According to a CNN report, at a huge 80-ha site of a former missile depot, just an hour’s drive from the Belarusian capital, near the village of Novokolosovo, sits a facility that could in fact be a prison camp for political dissidents. There are three levels of electrified barbed-wire fences, surveillance cameras, and military security at the site.
In August 2020, at Medical and Labor Camp 3 outside Slutsk, there was an attempt to set up a facility intended to hold those detained at mass protests. A similar facility was built at Penal Colony 22 near Ivatsevichi. Witnesses saw a few barracks put up at the site, a high wooden fence, freshly erected security towers, as well as construction workers still installing poles, laying barbed wire, and setting up military tents, while the “camp” was guarded by military servicemen.
• A critical increase in Russia’s influence over Belarus poses a particular threat to Lithuania and Ukraine. The latter is in a state of ongoing military conflict with Russia, and, consequently, the Kremlin could now open another front, threatening Ukraine from the north – the territory of Belarus. To this end, joint strategic exercises Zapad 2021 (West 2021) could work quite well. The deployment of Russian military units to Belarus creates more grounds for intensifying the process of deeper integration into a unified state with Russia.
Thus the Kremlin may expand the attempts to destabilize Ukraine with the immediate assistance of the Lukashenko regime in Minsk.
