The seemingly surprising last minute added sanctions against Russian individuals and entities connected to the violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty, as well as to the NordStream 2 pipeline come in the context of the prospective US-Russia treaties, as well as the confirmed second meeting focused on US-Russia strategic dialogue, following this summer’s get together in Geneva. These developments raise some questions, first, about the effectiveness of these strategic discussions in the absence of clear red lines and demands from Russia, and second, whether or not the sanctions will have any effect on modifying Russia’s behavior, particular respect to what US perceives as the violations of its national security and economic interests. Some of the sanctions would also prevent US persons from purchasing Russia’s sovereign debt bonds.
In some respects, these dialogue discussions mirror the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna, where Russia is a participant, to the detriment of US interests in that issue. There is no clear consequence for deception, manipulation, and bad faith. In terms of sanctions, we are seeing that President Biden is facing some pressure on both sides of the aisle, even from within the ranks of his own party, albeit belatedly. Biden’s dedication to rapprochement to Russia at the cost to US strategic alliances & prevention of instability and aggression is ironic given the years spent by the Democrats critiquing the Trump-led Republicans for allegedly being too soft on Russia. The pushback by the Democrats joining the effort shows that despite extreme political polarization in the United States, there are still some Democrats who understand US interests in the matter and place them above partisan considerations. Russia’s clear anti-Western paradigm since Putin’s assumption of power had been traditionally a unifying factor between the two parties; but the growth of domestic tensions led to politization of that issue. Still, those who were shocked by this development of Democrats joining Republicans on the proposed sanctions have ignored that much of the hot air related to this issue has come out of analytical and media circles, whereas the more seasoned politicians understand the importance of keeping Kremlin in check. The second issue of whether or not these sanctions prove to be efficacious is somewhat complex. Kremlin is dedicated to a kleptocratic and anti-Western form of government; Putin’s cronies are unlikely to change their ideology and behavior in response to US pressure due to the fact that they inextricably tied to the regime. However, the sanctions will make it more difficult for them to operate in the West and to conduct illicit or corrupt operations. The United States should not be a safe harbor for the very people actively seeking to undermine us, nor should they be able to profit from the “fruit of the poisonous tree” – the benefits of the US financial system.
The other issue is that cracking down on entities may indeed make it more difficult to execute certain projects, because where US takes the lead on this issue, other Western countries, particularly Europe, tend to follow, essentially isolating some of the leading Kremlin affiliates. As it is, lack of US leadership prior to these developments has caused unnecessary frictions with the European allies concerned about the expansions, without in any way benefiting the US. Still, optimism over the trajectory should be mixed with caution. The Democrat-majority Senate may not pass the necessary counterpart to the bill, and Biden may not sign it. Despite the threat of sanctions, Russia continues gaining ground in the US markets on energy issues, thanks to the Biden administration’s policies.
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