There are fears that renewed tensions could even spark a return of the kind of violence last seen 30 years ago, before the feuding parties reached successive deals to ensure the island group’s peaceful transition. Demarch by pro-independence forces points at increasing Chinese dominance in the region and possibility to lose control of oversees territories by France in Pacific.
New Caledonia case is the second indicator of Beijing’s activity to merge small states and autonomies in the region and enlarge control over Pacific and its resources.
Final results of an independence referendum in the French territory of New Caledonia show almost two-thirds of voters abstained or returned blank or null ballots, after a call for a boycott by supporters of independence.
Pro-independence parties in New Caledonia have rejected the result of a referendum, which overwhelmingly approved the Pacific territory remaining part of France.
While acknowledging that, for the moment, there is no concrete evidence of electoral interference from China in New Caledonia, an official from the cabinet ofFrance’s Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the government will be particularly vigilant and pointed to what already happened in other Melanesian islands, where Beijing’s presence is more evident, including in votes.
Other nations in the Melanesia region – including Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea – have already become “Chinese satellites.”
A total of 96.49 percent of ballots cast in Sunday’s referendum were against independence, while only 3.51 percent were in favour.
In the second vote in 2020, 47 percent of people voted for independence, which was an increase from the 43 percent that voted for it in 2018.
Kanaks, who largely favour independence, called for non-participation in the vote after France declined a request to delay the ballot to allow for a traditional mourning period following a September surge in coronavirus infections. However, the time of delay could be used by China to influence votes.
The Party of Kanak Liberation (PALIKA) is a radical party founded by left-leaning students that came back from France after the May 1968 riots.
Descendants of the French colonists, numbering over 40% in the archipelago, advocate preserving New Caledonia as part of France.
The FLNKS is a pro-independence alliance of political parties in New Caledonia founded in 1984 at a congress of various political parties. A majority of its supporters are mostly from the Kanak indigenous population but also include supporters from other ethnic communities.
In the 1980s the Front de Liberation Nationale Kanake et Socialists(FLNKS) was founded under the leadership of Jean-Marie Tjibaou. In November 1984, violent clashes broke out between the pro-independence Kanaks and the Europeans who opposed independence. Tjibaou, leader of the Kanaka Socialist National Liberation Front, the Melanesian independence movement, reacted to the deaths of the two front leaders by rejecting the referendum and calling for immediate and complete independence.
Those were followed by violent riots in the capital, Noumea, causing France to declare a state of emergency lasting six months. On January 22, 1985, France announced that it was sending 1,000 more troops to this South Pacific territory. There are already 2,280 French military police and 3,000 regular army troops in New Caledonia. A transitional regime was instituted during this period that allowed different groups to voice their concerns and issues about New Caledonia’s progress toward independence.
Other supporters of independence are the Caledonian Union (UC) (a centre-left formerly multi-ethnic party dating back to the early postwar period) and the National Union for Independence (UNI). The UNI includes Melanesian Progressive Union (a political movement based on the island’s west coast and mainly around the village of Poya, where its founder, the late Edmond Nekiriai hails from), the Oceanian Democratic Rally (a Polynesian (Wallisian-and-Futunian) based party).
The independence movement got a boost when the United Nations put New Caledonia on its decolonization list in 1986. France viewed the move as an attempt by the UN to interfere in its internal affairs and consequently expelled the Australian consul general from Noumea (Australia had been highly critical of France). In 1988 the peace process was marred when Kanak separatists attacked a police station and took 27 hostages. The French government retaliated, resulting in the death of 19 Kanaks. Soon after, pro- and anti- independence groups agreed to the Matignon Accord designed to reconcile the two camps by proposing an end to direct French rule and proposed a vote on independence to be held in 1998.
Tjibaou was assassinated in 1989 by radical members of FLNKS who believed that he had sold out the Kanaks by his participation in the peace process. The violence began to settle down in the early 1990s, but the proposed vote was later postponed by the 1998 Noumea Accord that gave New Caledonia greater autonomy from France and further postponed the vote on independence until 2014-2019. New Caledonian citizenship was also established. France claimed that the delay in the vote was due to fears of renewed violence, while some suspect that the actual reason was because France did not want to chance loosing New Caledonia’s economic assets.
New Caledonia has around a quarter of the world’s nickel deposits, in addition to having one of the region’s highest average incomes per capita.
China is by far New Caledonia’s top export destination and its share in the archipelago’s exports is growing at an impressive clip. In 2010, China accounted for 4 percent of New Caledonian exports; it now buys 57 percent.
In 2019, Chinese investors approached to take a stake in a nickel factory controlled by the South Province but, with the backing of the Elysée, their offer was rejected. A major nickel mine in the North Province, which is ruled by pro-independence politicians already has a partnership with China’s Yichuan Nickel Industry.
New Caledonia’s pro-independence coalition, the Kanak and Socialist Liberation Front (FLNKS) insists that China is just one among several international partners, not a threat.
French officials point out New Caledonia’s pro-independence coalition, the Kanak and Socialist Liberation Front, the FLNKS, is part of the regional Melanesian Spearhead Group, whose brand new headquarters in Port Vila [in Vanuatu] was donated by the People’s Republic of China.
President Emmanuel Macron’s government, is warning against the risks of China’s increasing sway in the Pacific. The People’s Republic of China’s influence in the region is similar to what it has done in Africa: economic insertion via loans – China holds more than 50 percent of the debts of some Pacific countries – via companies [participation] in public procurement, via gifts.
A very explicit warning also came from a research center of the French defense ministry, the IRSEM. The islands are a key part of France’s claim of being a Pacific power, with New Caledonia granting Paris rights to the surrounding ocean, as well as serving as a military staging post.
The fourth referendum is expected in 2023 to confirm New Caledonia’s new legal status. The chances are that the independence movement will dispute the legality of the poll and continue its struggle.
The possibility of getting the independence in 2023 is high, because of Chinese activity and policy by this year New Caledonia’s elected president Louis Mapou (UNI leader), who is the first pro-independence president since a 1998 deal with Paris.
