The possible failure of Sudanese democracy future

The possible failure of Sudanese democracy future

Sudan was plunged into further political turmoil when Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned, citing his failure to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy. With his resignation, Sudan appears to have once again plunged into a new political abyss and a high probability of rule by military junta and al-Bashir’s political team and loyal military officers with support from abroad. This is highly likely because the vacuum of power will be filled by ready-to-violence forces (military in case of Sudan).

January 3rd, 2022, the Prime Minister, Abdallah Hamdok has resigned in a televised address. This came just hours after at least three civilians were killed as security forces violently suppressed another wave of the Marches of the Millions, that saw hundreds of thousand take to the streets across the country to express their rejection of the military coup d’état of October 25, and the subsequent political agreement, signed by Hamdok with coup leader Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan. Tens of thousands have taken to the streets to protest against Hamdok’s ineffective and hamstrung government hampered by the military’s tight grip. 

Hamdok said his mediation attempts with civilian and military officials to achieve the necessary consensus to be able to deliver to Sudanese people the promise of peace, justice and no bloodshed had failed. Hamdok said he was unable to combine all the components of the transition to reach a unified vision. 

Hamdok’s resignation marks the latest upheaval in the country’s fragile transition to democracy following the 2019 removal of longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir.

An economist and former United Nations official, Hamdok was picked to lead the transitional government formed after the overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 amid a popular uprising against his longtime autocratic rule. 

Hamdok’s resignation comes just six weeks after he was released from house arrest and reinstated in terms of a political agreement signed with Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), and leader of the military junta that seized power. 

Amid widespread international condemnation of the coup, Hamdok was reinstated nearly a month later and signed a deal to form a government of technocrats that sidelined political groups.

The controversial deal was an intermediate stage that allows avoiding the worst effects of the coup, including bloodshed, international isolation, and Sudan’s return to its former pariah status in the international community.It included the release of political detainees and the formation of an independent cabinet of technocrats to face multiple challenges. Particularly they included the creation of transitional institutions, the position of the army, and even the formation of a new sovereign council. The agreement with the military was reached to keep Sudan on a path towards planned elections in 2023.

But Hamdok’s government scrapped subsidies on petrol and diesel and carried out a managed float of the Sudanese pound. Thus, many Sudanese saw the measures as too harsh and anti-government protests broke out in several parts of Sudan. Delays in delivering justice to the families of those killed under Bashir, and even during the 2019 protests following the autocrat’s ouster, also left Hamdok vulnerable to criticism.

Pro-democracy protest organisers rejected the deal. Many protesters who previously saw Hamdok as a symbol of civilian resistance to military rule denounced his deal as a betrayal.

So, Hamdok has been facing a popular backlash on the streets and among political groups that previously supported him after he made a deal with the military and was reinstated as prime ministerMass anti-government protests on the streets of Khartoum have continued against both Hamdok and the military.

At the end of December 2021, it was clear that Hamdok would resign as he realized the popular rejection of his deal with Burhan and that he did not get the support of the Forces for Freedom and Change.

 He understood that the coup leaders have no intention to commit themselves to the agreement signed with him as they continue to arrest activists and use brutal violence to disperse the protests.

Hamdok’s resignation also means that the military have lost their last card to induce international recognition and popular support, but got an opportunity to restore their power in Sudan.That is why, in response to Hamdok’s resignation, the U.S. State Department called on the Sudanese to reach a consensus to ensure continued civilian rule. “Sudan’s next PM and cabinet should be appointed in line with the constitutional declaration to meet the people’s goals of freedom, peace, and justice,” said the Bureau of African Affairs at the State Department in a tweet posted after the announcement of the resignation.