Domestic political confrontation in Russia threatens Putin’s regime

Increased aggression in the Kremlin’s foreign policy rhetoric comes as a result of an ongoing struggle for influence over President Vladimir Putin in his entourage, as well the expectation of Putin’s likely step-down due to health reasons, which will intensify the infighting in top offices in the context of power transition prospects.

In recent weeks, there have been changes in the alignment of political centers of influence in the Kremlin and a powerful undermining of the existing positions of one of such groups, led by the Head of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev. Throughout 2021, the Patrushev group was actively fighting the Sergei Shoigu group for influence. The defense minister took over financial flows and gained great influence within Russia’s Security Council. In addition, Shoigu harbors presidential ambitions and is trying to boost his influence on President Putin in hopes to become his successor if such an option comes up, which may be due to the Russian leader’s health issues.

Against the backdrop of Shoigu’s attempts to increase his influence in the Kremlin, the Patrushev group has been actively discrediting the defense chief at least over the past year, in parallel lines inflicting information attacks on Putin personally, exploiting the issues of the latter’s health, as well as the President and Shoigu’s joint passion for occult topics. This was done with the help of Patrushev’s information asset, political scholar Valeriy Solovyov.

In 2021, Patrushev’s group delivered a blow at the group led by FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov, having allegedly prevented an attempt on the President’s life. According to reports from sources close to the Russian foreign intelligence community, all FSB reports in this case went directly to Patrushev bypassing Bortnikov, so the Security Council chief was forwarding them to Putin after editing them the way he saw fit. The operation aimed to persuade Putin that one of the secret service operatives was supposed to replace an ampoule with a medication for Putin with that holding a lethal dose of poison. Thus, the Nikolai Patrushev and Igor Sechin’s group intended to make things look as if Putin owes them his life, as well as to neutralize the group of influence consisting of Putin’s confidants, former and current secret service employees, including the late Yevgeny Zinichev. In addition, making the assassination plan public became an indirect confirmation of Putin’s health condition and the fact that he was being administered medications through injections.

This operation was also supposed to challenge Bortnikov’s ability to ensure the president’s security and his control over the presidential entourage. As a result, the release of the report on the assassination plot coincided with Putin’s move to self-isolate in his Novo-Ogaryovo residence. This allowed limiting Putin’s access to alternative information sources and dramatically narrowing his circle of contacts.

As a result, in February 2022, Bortnikov’s group took over control of Patrushev’s information assets by arresting and making Solovey flip sides, which ultimately changed accents in reporting on the part of his information platforms. Despite the continued tarring of Shoigu, the number of messages, spread through these channels, aimed to criticize Vladimir Putin has declined significantly.

It is obvious that Shoigu’s close contact with the President and his influence in shaping an aggressive foreign policy set for confrontation with the West is causing discontent among a number of groups in the Kremlin. Thus, it is highly likely that the efforts to discredit Shoigu will continue until he loses the potential to claim the post of the Russian President. In response, the defense minister is deliberately raising stakes in the military domain, pushing Putin towards belligerent decisions, which in turn increases his influence in the Kremlin circles. Speculation on military threats also contributes to a larger defense budget.

At the same time, Shoigu is becoming the only figure responsible for addressing challenges in the field of defense. Thus, he reduces the influence of other figures in security and defense areas, becoming the only highly important figure in Putin’s entourage. Today, Shoigu enjoys the highest confidence on the part of Vladimir Putin and remains likely to make further attempts to reduce the influence and contacts of his rivals in the struggle for the country’s top post.

The head of foreign intelligence, Sergey Naryshkin, who also has presidential ambitions of his own, defies such a Putin-Shoigu policy, while Shoigu’s moves restrict his business interests and political projects abroad. Naryshkin’s noble origin is also among the reasons for his contempt towards the minister of defense, who represents a non-titular ethnic group. So he sees Shoigu’s presidential claims as such as unacceptable.

The efforts to push the Patrushev group out of the Kremlin are expected to continue, including targeting his son (who is now Russia’s agriculture minister), whom the latter sees as a candidate for presidency if Putin steps down for health reasons. Patrushev’s influence within the FSB agitates Bortnikov, who fails to retain full control of the agency and realizes the duality of power, of which the President is aware. In this regard, it is likely that Bortnikov will try to throw Patrushev’s people out of the FSB, limiting the operational capabilities of the Security Council chief.

Thus, the internal political squabbles are gaining momentum in the Kremlin. The latest moves by the existing groups of influence testify to their high expectations of Putin being removed from power, apparently due to his deteriorating health.