What next Italy? 

The government of Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi managed to gain confidence in the Senate on the evening of Wednesday 20 July, but was unable to stand up. The right-wing and populist parties “La Lega”, the populist movement “Five Stars”, “Forza Italia” of Silvio Berlusconi said they would boycott the vote, saying that Draghi had failed to give the Italian public adequate answers to urgent questions.

As always, the Italian prime minister spoke clearly in the Senate chamber, with that even slightly rough frankness that is typical of those used to identifying problems and proposing solutions without the need to sweeten the medicine with the rhetoric and demagogy which are the ingredients most used by politicians.

Draghi does not have votes to win, customers to please: he is a technician, a banker (as they call him politicians and journalists who do not like him) used to be based on facts; more often on numbers.

And in fact, he listed the successes achieved by his government which the prime minister called “a civil miracle” that made him “proud to be Italian”: GDP increase of 6%, support for families and businesses for the increase in gasoline and gas bills, reduction of 60% of dependence on Russian gas (“In a few months we have reduced our imports of Russian gas from 40% to less than 25% of the total and we intend to reset them within a year and a half “). He spoke of “new collective credibility”, the leading role of the Italy in European policies, launch of the fifty reforms requested by Brussels for the granting of loans. 

All this, said Draghi, was possible due to the united spirit that characterized the majority, guaranteeing the government speed and the determination of action. Draghi told the parties. “Yours was the best response to the appeal of the President of the Republic last February”.

A solidarity pact that has cracked after the recent administrative elections which saw the collapse (from 30 to 12 percent) of the “Five Star” Movement and the “Lega”, a slight recovery of “Forza Italia” party and the advance of the far-right party “Fratelli d’Italia” (the only one left in the opposition) which today would be the first in Italy, closely followed by the Democratic Party (the reformist left).

From that moment on, “Lega” and “5 Stars” began to agitate, contesting measures proposed in the Council of Ministers and riding even violent street protests (taxi drivers, owners of bathing establishments on the beaches, protests regarding land registry reform, new plants such as incinerators, gasifiers, supply of weapons to the ‘Ukraine, etc.).

Faced with these fibrillations, Foreign Minister Di Maio abandoned the “5 Stars” movement, bringing with him sixty parliamentarians with whom he founded a new party (Together for the Future).

Draghi, himself, opened the crisis a week ago, when the “5 Stars” leader, Giuseppe Conte, announced that his group would not vote on a measure that contained aid to families for increases in energy bills. The government had the necessary votes to approve the decree even without the votes of the “5 Stars” and Conte probably intended to make just a little move to give visibility to his party and up the ante to influence the government.

But Draghi did not even wait for the end of the vote and went to the President of the Republic, Mattarella, to whom he handed over his resignation, which the President refused, postponing the Premier to the parliamentary debate.

Draghi has thus put Conte with his back to the wall, forcing him, in fact, to leave the government. Today there are dozens of other “5 Stars” parliamentarians. 

Meanwhile, heartfelt appeals to the former president of the ECB to remain at the helm of the government have come from all over the world (Washington, Brussels … the Financial Time). From Italy it was a real suffrage in favour of the Premier: entrepreneurs and trade unions, 2000 mayors, university professors, exponents of the world of health and almost seventy percent of citizens asked Draghi to remain in his place.

“I can’t do other but listen to these appeals, that’s why I’m here today,” Draghi told the Senate.

A side note… During his speech, Draghi strongly reaffirmed Italy’s European and Atlantic position: alongside the EU and NATO in support of Ukraine.

 “Arming Ukraine is the only way to allow Ukrainians to defend themselves. Italy is a free country, in front of those who want to try to seduce us with authoritarian models, we must respond with our fidelity to European values “.

And it is impossible not to remember that the “Lega” has a pact of common action with Vladimir Putin’s party, while the Italian intelligence is investigating the relations between Giuseppe Conte and the Russian Federation during the period in which he was prime minister before Draghi.

Is there also the interference of the Kremlin behind the Italian crisis? 

Putin’s number two, Dimitrj Medvedev applauded the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Jonson and also that of Draghi. The head of European foreign policy Borrell warned him not to sell the bear skin before he got it.The vote to the Senate yesterday evening show he was wrong!

Emmanuel Macron, in Paris, is also very weak after the last elections.

In short, the game being played in Rome in these hours concerns all of Europe and also the Western side in support of Ukraine.

But the chaotic Italian political world did not allow him to do so.

The historian Tito Livio says that, during the occupation of Rome by the barbarians, the Roman Senate had to decide whether to abandon the devastated city or stay to rebuild it. The decision was made by a centurion who ordered his troops: Hic manebimus optime, “We’ll be fine here”. 

July 20th the government obtained the trust in the Senate and therefore it is in office. It is a “minority government” because it did not have an absolute majority, but it has the fullness of power. Draghi, however, went up to the Quirinale, to the Republic President to resign.

In the statement following the meeting it was understood that the intention of the head of State is to take into account the emergency and ensure that “the work does not stop.” 

There are many things to do: manage the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the new ten billion decree to support income, energy autonomy, the national reform plan. Early elections could be held on September 25th.

Governing a hundred days with limited powers will not be easy. Draghi is planning to follow the UN general assembly in mid-September remotely and he will again participate in the Prague Summit of European Leaders, at the beginning of October. 

The appointment for which Mattarella would like Draghi still on is that of the 20th, when the Twenty-seven will discuss the fate of the price of gas. But there should be a new government by then. 

The Economist through an in-depth article denounced the inability of Italian politics to understand or worry about the consequences of what happens outside its borders. And in fact, the first proof of this occurred yesterday: to have the yes to the anti-speculation shield in favour of Italy, the number one of the ECB Christine Lagarde had to give in to the pressure of the Nordic governors on a rate increase of half a point, plus expected. A brake on European growth, more interest on the Italian debt.

Since yesterday, the relationship between Conte Of “Five Stars”, Salvini of “La Lega” is likely to strengthen more and more and one cannot but say that with the vote of Berlusconi, Salvini and Conte win Putin’s allies in Italian politics.What the next government will be remains to be seen.