The Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) refusal to send ‘peacekeepers’ to Armenia against the background of the conflict escalation with Azerbaijan will inevitably lead to the organization collapse. Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the denial of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as Moscow’s priorities in the goal implementation to the detriment of the interests of partners, raised skeptical mood in the post-Soviet space as for Moscow’s ability and desire to defend the CSTO member countries.
The fighting on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border started on the evening of September 13. Prime Minister Nikol called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the conflict escalation. Pashinyan raised the issue of the CSTO forces’ engagement, since the request to get military aid from Russia and the organization had been discussed at the Armenian Security Council.
However, Anatoly Sidorov, the Chief of the CSTO Joint Headquarters, said that the CSTO’s military involvement had not been raised. Therefore, this is the second time after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict when the CSTO has refused to provide military support to Armenia.
As of Moscow, it refused to help Armenia because of its agreement on non-interference in the conflict on the side of Yerevan concluded with Ankara. For more than a year Russia has been negotiating with Turkey to put common efforts to reduce China’s influence in Central Asia. Ankara counts on Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. At the same time, the Kremlin moved part of its contingent from the military base in Gyumri, Armenia, to Ukraine to strengthen Russian military group fighting in the Donbass and the south of the country.
The September Karabakh conflict escalation is a Patrushev-led plan launched in June of this year. From the very beginning the Kremlin planned no aid to Armenia and intended to draw indignation in the world community by weakening the positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as brining the tension between Türkiye and the NATO Armenia-friendly countries to the breaking point. After failed plans to change the leadership of the capital of Armenia in 2021, the Kremlin hoped for a coup in Yerevan and pro-Russian and puppet government.
Thus, in order to keep partnership with Türkiye, Russia ceded Armenia to the Ankara-Baku alliance. Such a scenario nullifies the mission and principles of the CSTO, since it puts Russia’s geopolitical interests, which threaten the security of the CSTO member state, above the organization charter. The members of the organization have clearly seen Russia ignoring their security needs in cases when Moscow can benefit from such a conflict geopolitically.
The Kremlin’s anemic position caused protests in Armenia whose participants demand their country to leave the CSTO. The protesters came out with the flags of the United States and Ukraine.
Kazakhstan is the next country that might show an intention to leave the CSTO. On the one hand, Moscow has already questioned the statehood of Kazakhstan several times, exactly the same narratives Russia had as for Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Since the Russian invasion of Donbass 8 years ago, Astana has got some messages about possibilities of Ukraine-like scenarios as for its northern territories on the border with Russia that is inhabited by ethnic Russians.
After the CSTO dubious operation in Kazakhstan in January 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions imposed on Moscow, Astana has been skeptical about advisability of entrusting Moscow with its own security issues and tends to strengthen security cooperation with China. Thus, even if Kazakhstan stays in the CSTO, its participation in the Russian project will be nominal. Previously, Tokayev defiantly distanced himself from Russia’s special operation in Ukraine; now he is neutral on the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Thus, the Kremlin understands the inevitability of the CSTO crisis. Therefore, Russia will likely change its approach to the collective security issue and provide support in exchange for joining the Union State, a de facto revival of the Soviet Union.
