The coup in Niger that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum has signs that Russia is most probably involved.
First of all, Wagner mercenaries made attempts to gain influence in Niger starting from 2021, as they launched disinformation campaigns to counter President Mohamed Bazoum. The latest statement by Wagner Group leaderPrigozhin hinted at large operation that Wagner was planning in the short run.
Wagner Group spread disinformation in social media that a coup in Niger took place when Bazoum was visiting Paris. They also launched a fake that the French used armed jihadists to kill 17 Nigerien soldiers at that moment. Both posts relate to the Lakhta project, a “troll farm” funded by Prigozhin, under US sanctions since 2018. Bazoum vehemently opposed Wagner’s presence in Niger.
Wagner Group is present in Niger’s neighbor countries, which is why France and Great Britain have withdrawn their troops. After Niger coup, Russian mercenaries are highly likely to appear in the country, thus making a “Russian control belt” in the region, comprising Mali, Central African Republic, Sudan, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
We have been following Russia’s areas of interest in Niger since 2017-2020, when Moscow launched influence operations there. In February 2023, Niger’s key trade union asked the government to withdraw all foreign troops, as they were considered incapable of ensuring the safety of residents. That was for the French operation troops in Barkhana and Takuba, as they remained there after the French withdrew from Mali in the summer of 2022.
We believe that operation was targeting to set stage for the foreign troops to withdraw from Niger, with Russian Wagner group taking their place, like in Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan. The key interest for Moscow there is to take control of uranium mines that export raw materials for French nuclear company. The interest by Russia in African raw materials is in line with the latest trends in Russia’s neo-colonial policy in Africa.
The coup coincided with Russia-Africa summit, which was likely to show Russia’s capacity in Africa and was an act of intimidation for regimes that chose to ignore the event.
Besides control of strategic raw materials, the Kremlin, therefore, sought to strike at Paris in nuclear energy market, targeting to cut France off Niger uranium, which secures 30-45% of its needs. We believe the sudden launch of coup was inspired by China’s interest in Niger’s uranium mines. On July 6th, the West African nation of Niger and China have been discussing deals that include an industrial park, an oil pipeline and a uranium mine. That way, Russia faced China’s rise there, with Russia losing a chance to gain control of Niger, its deposits and opportunity to weigh on French economy. Wagner mercenaries most likely used the Russian Embassy in Niger to reach out to the military leaders and offered them to share the mines’ work income.
President Mohamed Bazoum who was elected in 2021, has been one of the most reliable partners to many Western countries in a volatile region threatened by militant extremists and prone to coups.
It is noteworthy that the presidential guard that initially encircled the residence, was not supported by the military. It was reported that the military was standing ready to “attack the elements” behind the mutiny if they do not relent. Troops loyal to the president could clash with those encircling the presidential compound. But the fact that the military supported the rebels means that they changed their minds and decided to go over to the side of the conspirators. We believe therefore that when the President was captured the military did not support that, and the third forces started to negotiate with the military after the coup was launched.
Nigerien civilians supporting the rebel troops walked through the capital waving Russian flags and celebrating the overthrowing of Mr Bazoum on Thursday afternoon, while young children were seen with the letter “Z”, a symbol of Russia‘s war against Ukraine, emblazoned on their clothes.
Aside from the idea of corruption interest by the rebels, their decision was shaped by the fact that Mr. Bazoum may have faced growing discontent from parts of the military that have not received funding from Western partners.
