The Kremlin is most likely to gear up for provocations followed by radiation poisoning, according to some reports coming from Russia.
We’ve seen regular RFF9903 Moscow-Sarov-Novaya Zemlya flights by An-148-100 military transport aircraft of Russia’s Defense Ministry since May. The planes did not report landing in Sarov, as they switched off transponders before reaching Novaya Zemlya. There are some nuclear weapon development facilities in Sarov (Arzamas-16). The planes landed at the Chkalovsky airfield, which means those flights were military. The RA-61732 took part in the flights as well.
Russian Prime Minister Mishustin was in Sarov at the same time, inspecting UFL-2M laser.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Rosatom Head Alexei Likhachev visited Novaya Zemlya on August 12. They checked the test site, used by Soviet Union for megaton nuclear weapon tests. We focus our attention on the fact that Rosatom takes part in nuclear weapon development and production. The visit by Shoigu and Likhachev to Novaya Zemlya, therefore, follows recorded flights by RAF there. Novaya Zemlya is highly likely being prepared for nuclear testing. We keep on doubting Russia’s nurlear arsenal is technically combat-ready. It’s clear the Kremlin has the same doubts, as it actively inspects and tests the facilities previously used for nuclear testing.
With Novaya Zemlya in focus, Russian telegram channels affiliated with FSB, starting from January this year have been spreading the message on provocation prepared, targeting Russian nuclear power plants, followed by blaming Ukraine and its Western allies for the incidents.
The scenario of a response operation by Russians targeting nuclear plant they captured in Energodar, Zaporozhye region, is spreading simultaneously.
These channels claim that would be the reason for Moscow to use tactical nuclear weapons. We believe Russia, if sabotaged its own nuclear plant, will not be able to overcome on its own the effects of a manmade disaster similar to Chernobyl in 1986. In case this plan is implemented, they are likely to simulate an air strike by UAV. But Ukrainian drones cannot technically damage nuclear plant so hard to let radiation leak. That is why this strike will most probably be simulated with partial contamination of the terrain, as Russians will be able to control the effect and spread of local radiation. Provocation of a manmade incident in Energodar also poses threat to Russia. With adverse weather conditions, the contamination can spread to the terrain of Donbas, Krasnodarsky Krai and Crimea. Whatever the risks for Russia, however, we cannot rule out this scenario, as Kremlin might view it as an operation to create A2 / AD zone in Ukraine, with control over the soil that won’t be lost after the counteroffensive.
Moscow can be sure that kind of incident will make the West to revise its attitude to the war in Ukraine. Nuclear blackmail, however, is not related to the war in Ukraine, but seeks to boost Moscow’s stance in confronting the U.S.
Aside of that, a mock attack on a nuclear facility may not just be the reason for Russia to resume nuclear testing, but also change the status of military operation in Ukraine. Special military operation with the goals declared does not find understanding with Russian people and does not mobilize them to support the regime. Provoked accident at a nuclear facility might be a trigger to declare a war on Ukraine and launch total mobilization for Russians.
Some sources in the Kremlin say total mobilization was discussed in Moscow in the second half of 2022, but was postponed over fears of low popular support and domestic political risks for the regime. The Kremlin hopes that provocation at a nuclear facility, followed by radiation leak will rally people around the President.
The provocation scenario is not likely to be generated by Defense Ministry. It is similar by purpose to that of the beginning of Chechen war, when apartment blocks exploded in Russian cities. This may indirectly indicate that this operation might be developed by the Security Council Head Patrushev and his team.
This operation is an opportunity for Moscow to test fighting capacity of tactical nuclear weapons, and put psychological pressure on the West, not triggering nuclear conflict involving nuclear triad. This scenario proves the idea of Putin eager to repeat some of Cold War scenarios in confronting the U.S. It is clear that provocation at Russian nuclear facility is the Kremlin’s desire to become the second world power to use nuclear weapons. That way the Kremlin wants to raise the stakes in confronting the West and show it is ready to use nuclear weapons. But the target is Ukraine, which ensures there will be no nuclear strike in response, but Psyop impact will be on. Modelling speaks for highly probable mock attack on one of Russian nuclear plants, followed by radiation leak. The most probable scenario is a mock attack on the first block of Kursk nuclear plant, withdrawn from service in 2021, and located closest to the Ukrainian border.
