February 2023 forecast by RLI on terrorist threat for strategic targets in Europe by far-left forces affiliated with Russian intelligence is confirmed.
Three sections of the railway in Hamburg were on fire on the night of September 8, causing major failure of passenger traffic between Berlin and Hamburg. The alleged railway burning was followed by anonymous post on leftist Indymedia claiming responsibility for the incident.That confirms the assumption the Kremlin has returned to the tactics of sponsoring and using left-wing terrorist groups to roil Western Europe, as in the Cold War. The railway sabotage is similar to actions undertaken by RAF (Red Army Faction), a Marxist group, operating in Germany in 1970-1990. According to one former RAF member, in meetings with KGB in Dresden the group was also met by Vladimir Putin, then KGB resident in East Germany. In these meetings RAF members would discuss weapons that were needed for their activities, and pass a “shopping list” to the KGB.
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The bet on far-left forces in Europe does not mean that Russians give up on supporting far-right political forces in the West. The Kremlin has the task to stop arms shipments to Ukraine. That would mean quantitative advantage in equipment and ammunition over Ukraine, on one hand. At the same time, Western defense industry and NATO rearmament that boosted following Russian invasion of Ukraine, would have to grind to a halt.
Moscow, that way, resorts to anti-war rhetoric in Europe, using Cold War language, and left-wing political forces.
At the same time, we see the Kremlin’s ongoing attempts to ignite a religious conflict in Europe by attacks against Islam. They aim to provoke clashes between Muslim migrants and those who support affiliated or backed right-wing forces.Sabotage at German railway indicates that Russian leaders most likely switched to a sabotage war in Europe. RLI analysts noted the signs of preparation for these operations in Spain back in October 2019.
We believe, however, extensive damage to Russian intelligence networks in Europe, with the bulk of officers operating under diplomatic cover expelled, made Moscow get back to sabotage that replicates political terrorism of Marxist groups. We cannot rule out that Russian combat sabotage groups, only imitating left-wing organizations (like RAF) could be involved in sabotage. Russia has lost power of ideological influence abroad that it enjoyed before 1991. Radical activists who collaborated with Soviet KGB cannot be used for sabotage operations, due to their age.
CIA-RDP90-00965R000605740007-6Monetary reward remains the only possible motive for Russians in Europe to collaborate. That is why we believe that mock far-left terrorist attacks might be staged directly by Russian sabotage groups or agents (including those from diaspora).
We also believe further sabotage targeting not only transport infrastructure facilities, but also military and police facilities is highly possible.Local organizations are unlikely to be involved politically, that is why NATO countries should ensure proper counterintelligence protection against Russia and pro-Russian organizations.
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