NATO is challenged: Russia starts hybrid operations on the Finnish border

Russia attempts to intensify tension on the borders with NATO by using illegal migrants sent from the regions of Africa and Asia, whom Moscow intends to prepare to cross the Finnish boarder. 

The region is witnessing an uncontrolled arrival of undocumented asylum seekers from Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen and other countries. The situation duplicates the scenario that the Kremlin worked out on the border of Belarus and Poland in 2021. In 2015-2016, Moscow already tested the reaction and vulnerabilities of Finland by sending about 1,800 migrants to its border.

The situation aggravation on the Finnish border is explained by the country’s course for NATO membership and intention to check how vulnerable the Alliance is in this area. Thus, the Kremlin keeps confronting with the Alliance through hybrid tactic operations. 

We are convinced that the situation on the Finnish border is the Federal Security Service and military intelligence combined operation, which was developed, organized and fulfilled on the orders of Nikolai Patrushev, the Head of the Russian Security Council. Obviously, Patrushev is demonstrating the West-war hawk among the Russian elite. It indicates that as long as his influence increases, Russia’s foreign policy will remain aggressive. Thus, doubtfully Patrushev is the figure who can break the ice between Moscow and the West in the medium term. It is obvious that further situation destabilization on the borders of the Alliance will increase pressure on Russia and will not ensure the results, in particular, strengthening of Moscow’s negotiating position. It also cannot be ruled out that hybrid operations on the borders of the Alliance are Russians’ reconnaissance in the interests of developing conventional operations in northeastern Europe.

The illegal migrants were sent from the countries where the Wagner group is still active; it is worth mentioning that after Prigozhin’s rebellion the PMG Wagner is controlled by Russian military intelligence and Special Forces. Currently, these structures are informally subordinate to the Head of the Security Council. Thus, Russian military structures recruit and send illegal migrants with the aim of further transporting them to Europe. The Federal Security Service officers by using diplomatic cover in African and Asian countries may participate in this process. We are still confident that figures who will take part in special operations to destabilize the political, social and religious situation in Europe, are involved in this artificially generated migration crisis on the Finnish border.

One more cause for concern is that Iran joined Russia’s hybrid tactic operations.

Patrushev is seeking to consolidate Russian elites’ support by taking more and more presidential powers. However, taking into consideration social and economic crisis, as well as uncertainty in the context of the 2024 presidential elections in Russia, we doubt that further confrontation is the policy that both the business elite and the security forces expect from the Kremlin. As a result, the basis for the elites’ consolidation around Patrushev will weaken.In order to minimize the risks, it is advisable for Helsinki to reduce the number of checkpoints on the border with Russia and tighten bilateral migration policy.