Presidential election in Russia likely to trigger violent transit of power

The presidential election in Russia has proved, predictably, to be illegal, not free and unfair. People in occupied areas that are not part of Russia under international law, voted in the midst of tough repression, with no way for free democratic choice. The international law does not recognize the voting in annexed and occupied areas as valid.  Russia’s presidential election has practically failed, therefore, and the international community cannot accept the outcome. The Kremlin believes Putin won 87.38% of the vote on a record turnout of more than 77.44%. It is obvious, however, that people in the occupied territories of Ukraine voted under armed force.

The Kremlin cannot take the opportunity to use the results of staged election, as the outcome was known back in the fall of 2023, when people were tested to approve presidential state policy. Moscow interprets Putin’s victory as a sign of popular support. It became known in the fall of 2023, that President’s Administration received an order to get about 90% of the votes. That caused mass listing of dead voters and emigrants; using of vanishing ink pens at polling stations, and spoiled ballot counting as a vote for the current President. The election was also rigged because Putin practically ran no election campaign, compared to election activity of previous ones.

the protest was small and purely symbolic. There were no mass demonstrations or public rallies inside Russia. In Putin’s Russia, this is no longer possible. Anyone who displays even a minimum of rebellion or criticism must reckon with the harshest punishments. For all those whodisagree with Putin, there are only two options: stay and keep quiet, or leave the country. The high number of Russians who have already opted for the latter was evident from the queues outside polling stations abroad.

With the Kremlin eager to manifest public support for Putin despite his international isolation, Russia’s political leaders made the people, not just Putin, responsible for the state policy, which means, therefore, that people should share responsibility for all crimes of the regime. Popular support for the war in Ukraine is most likely to be used to expand aggression to other post-Soviet areas, inching the revival of Soviet Union, as Putin and his entourage are sure its breakup was their personal tragedy and fault.

We believe it will be hard for Russia’s leaders to balance the interests of ruling elites after the election. Nikolai Patrushev, who assumed certain presidential powers following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion, holds the decision-making center right now. We remain confident there will be a change of government within the next 1.5-2 months, with current Minister of Agriculture, Dmitry Patrushev, becoming a Prime Minister. A protégé of Putin’s business entourage is likely to become Deputy Prime Minister. If confirmed, this scenario assumes a palace coup for Russia within six months.

Putin can rule even more repressively at home and put even more military pressure on Ukraine. Now that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, the Russian president will not even think about negotiating a peace.